Brazil Presidential Election
79%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro79%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21%
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Middlesbrough mayoral election winner? (2027)
The odds
37%Reform UK
- Reform UK37%▼ 1
- Labour33%▼ 1
- Conservative14%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Reform UK: 37% on Oct 19, 37% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 37% | ▼ 1 | 33¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | |
| Labour | 33% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | |
| Conservative | 14% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Middlesbrough, Reform UK
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Labour Opinion Poll Surge Continues As Reform UK's Slump Goes OnThe so-called “Burnham bounce” is showing no signs of stopping. Labour’s surge under Andy Burnham is continuing while Reform UK continue to struggle, according to a new poll. The YouGov survey puts support for Labour on 27%, up 3 points in… -
Reform UK Controversy: The ITV Investigation ExplainedReform UK faces pressure after an ITV undercover investigation exposed racist and sexist remarks, prompting questions over candidate vetting. Referred to Asian people as “parasites”. Reform UK is facing mounting pressure after an ITV… -
Reform UK branch in disarray after falling out with top official in WalesA Reform UK branch is in turmoil after its chair resigned following a row with the party’s “head of Wales”. Party insiders have passed Nation.Cymru messages from an online group chat in which Don Sturgeon explains that he has resigned… -
Reform UK’s Lincolnshire mayor Andrea Jenkyns proudly trumpeted a ‘landmark trade deal’ with Taiwan and was schooled into the next millenniumPolitics Andrea Jenkyns Reform UK John Plunkett. Updated October 20th, 2026 Andrea Jenkyns is probably still best known as being the former Tory MP who once gave the middle finger to protesters outside Downing Street. But she’s doing her… -
Judge orders Reform UK challenger to pay £37,000 after failed wind-up bidDaniel Pocock tried to force Reform UK into liquidation and lost. At a High Court hearing in London on Monday, Chief Insolvency and Companies Court Judge Nicholas Briggs said any reasonable observer would take Nigel Farage's promise to… -
Politician exposed in Reform UK investigation says he 'will not be bullied' into resigning from Tameside councilAn undercover journalist meet Raymond Dunning, a Reform councillor in Tameside(Image: ITV) An ex-Reform UK councillor has refused to resign following the release of an ITV expose. Raymond Dunning was secretly filmed by an undercover… -
Reform UK MSP quits as Labour becomes second biggest party in blow to Nigel FarageReform UK remains larger than the Tories, Greens and Liberal Democrats north of the border WATCH NOW: Malcolm Offord discusses his shock defection from the Tories A Reform UK MSP has resigned the party's whip in the Scottish Parliament in… -
Amanda Bland Quits Reform UK Scotland To Sit As Independent MSPPublished 19 Oct 2026, 12:14 UTC Amanda Bland resigns from Reform UK Scotland to sit as an independent at Holyrood. Her departure leaves Reform UK Scotland as the third-largest group behind Labour. Four of eight headlines frame Bland’s… -
Who Is Amanda Bland? Reform UK MSP Quits Party as Scottish Labour Becomes Official OppositionAmanda Bland, Reform UK's justice spokeswoman in Scotland, has quit the party to sit as an independent member of the Scottish Parliament, reshaping the political balance at Holyrood. Her departure leaves Reform with 16 MSPs, allowing… -
Police Scotland assess Reform UK election spending ‘errors’Police are assessing whether a number of Reform UK candidates in Scotland broke election spending rules, with the party admitting “administrative errors” were made. The party has confirmed four Holyrood candidates did not submit returns… -
A Reform UK-er dismissed racists within his party as ‘a few bad apples’ and was brutally owned in magnificent fashionPolitics ITV Reform UK John Plunkett. Updated October 19th, 2026 The fallout from that brilliant and absolutely horrifying ITV investigation into evidence of racism, Islamophobia and extremism within Reform UK shows no sign of ending, and… -
Reform UK MP Suspended After Advocating Concentration Camps and Anti-Muslim RemarksHome » Trending » Reform UK MP Suspended After Advocating Concentration Camps and Anti-Muslim Remarks An aspiring MP from Reform UK has been suspended from the party following controversial remarks that have raised significant concerns…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.