Which New York City restaurants earn a Michelin star in 2026?

Kalshi Culture Closes Dec 13 · $365 traded · $64 at stake · prices read 5 h ago

The odds

88%Le Chêne

Le Chêne88%
Bungalow12%

How the odds have moved

Le Chêne: 80% on Oct 20, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Le Chêne	88%		1¢	99¢	$1.01	51.00
Bungalow	12%		1¢	99¢	$1.01	2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New York City, Michelin, Le Chêne

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New York city council votes to ban horse-drawn carriage ridesthe Guardian · 2 days agoCity’s council passed Romanch’s Law, named after teen who died when he was ejected from carriage earlier this year The New York city council has voted to ban horse-drawn carriage rides in the city by 2028 in a decision that has widespread…
Gun charge against New York City Councilwoman Inna Vernikov dropped by Brooklyn DACBS News · 3 days agoUpdated on: November 17, 2023 / 5:49 PM EST / CBS New York NEW YORK -- The charge against New York City Council Member Inna Vernikov, who was arrested for bringing a gun to a rally over the Israel-Hamas war, has been dropped by the…
Can these shoes survive New York City? 6 New Yorkers put them to the ultimate testNew York Post · 3 days agoNew York City is the ultimate proving ground — and the wrong pair of shoes can turn a daily commute into a nightmare. For the New York Post’s Made It Here Awards, six reporters hit the streets of Manhattan in boots, heels and flats to see…
New York City Council passes bill to ban horse-drawn carriage rides within 2 yearsCBS News · 2 days agoUpdated on: October 22, 2026 / 6:08 PM EDT / CBS New York The New York City Council passed a bill banning horse-drawn carriage rides in the city by 2028. Lawmakers voted Thursday afternoon on Romanch's Law. The legislation is named after…
Mariah Fredericks on her latest New York City novel, "Murder on 34th Street"CBS News · 3 days agoOctober 21, 2026 / 6:54 PM EDT / CBS New York Find out more about the books below. November is around the corner, and a new mystery is adding a sinister twist to a holiday tradition. Mary Calvi talked to author Mariah Fredericks about her…
Knicks championship ring maker on capturing New York City's DNA in his designCBS News · 4 days agoOctober 21, 2026 / 11:43 AM EDT / CBS News It took Jason Arasheben 22 carats of diamonds and blue sapphires, 180 grams of gold and nearly 800 individually set stones to capture New York City's DNA in the Knicks' championship rings, which…
New York City Bans The Sale Of Foie Gras, Will Punish Businesses Offering Food From Force-Fed AnimalsCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 30, 2019 / 10:21 PM EDT / CBS New York NEW YORK (CBSNewYork/AP) — The New York City Council has voted to ban the sale of foie gras — the fattened liver of a duck — served in fine restaurants and gourmet groceries across the city…
New York City horse carriage workers hold ban rallyKYMA · 3 days agoNEW YORK (CBS, KYMA) - New York City carriage workers rallied outside City Hall on Thursday, asking the city council not to vote to ban horse carriage riding. The New York City Council will vote this afternoon on a bill that would ban…
It’s official: New York City is banning horse-drawn carriagesCrain's New York · 2 days agoCrain's New York Itâs official: New York City is banning horse-drawn carriages Gov. Kathy Hochul's administration has shown a willingness to explore reforming the state's Scaffold Law, a lightning rod issue that has been discussed for…
2027 TCS New York City MarathonParkinson's Foundation · 3 days agoThere is a lot to know about Parkinson's disease. Learn about symptoms, how it is diagnosed and what treatment options are available. While living with PD can be challenging, there are many things you can do to maintain and improve your…
New York City Bans Horse-Drawn Carriages From June 2028NTD · 2 days agoNEW YORK—The New York City Council voted on Thursday to ban horse-drawn carriages from city streets and Central Park beginning in June 2028, ending a historic tourist attraction and long-standing industry. Out of the city's 51 lawmakers…
2026 TCS New York City Marathon: How to watch liveABC7 New York · 3 days agoWatch the 2026 TCS NYC Marathon on Sunday starting with the pre-show at 7:00 a.m. on Channel 7 NEW YORK CITY (WABC) -- As New York City prepares to celebrate a milestone year, the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon is shaping up to be one of…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onMichelin

Trading closesDec 13, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$365 (2,468 contracts)

This week$365

At stake$64

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Kabawa has gained Michelin stars in the 2026 annual Michelin Guide compared with the prior annual edition, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.