Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? (Before 2030)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Jan 1, 2030 · $634 today · $1.4K traded · $609 at stake · prices read 25 min ago

The odds

68%Before 2030

Before 203068%▲ 1
Before 202962%▲ 1
Before 202826%▼ 19
Before 20274%

How the odds have moved

Before 2030: 68% on Oct 19, 68% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2030	68%	▲ 1	65¢	71¢	$1.41	145
Before 2029	62%	▲ 1	58¢	65¢	$1.54	549
Before 2028	26%	▼ 19	26¢	38¢	$2.63	3.1K
Before 2027	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	4.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

Trading closesJan 1, 2030 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.4K (8,625 contracts)

Today$634

This week$1.4K

At stake$609

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.