2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.78%median
-100%100%
Median 9.78%Middle half 7.74% – 11.89%
Install
Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Nov 2026?
The odds
25%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 25% on Nov 2, 25% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 20¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Congress
Search ›- Trump demands Ilhan Omar immediately resign from CongressThe 'Ruthless Podcast' co-hosts discuss the latest on the Ilhan Omar controversy as she faces two federal investigations. 'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-hosts also weigh in on a report comparing the president to Hitler over the probes. Trump…
- Trump says Omar has to ‘resign’ from Congress amid probesPresident Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Mich., about Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., ongoing investigations involving her and protests in France. Trump says Omar has to ‘resign’ from Congress amid probes President Donald Trump…
- Capitol police chief: New intel bureau is key as Congress threats riseThe events that unfolded on Jan. 6, 2021 ultimately led to a hefty to-do list for Chief of U.S. Capitol Police Thomas Manger, who assumed the role about six months after the attack. In an interview ... Capitol police chief: New intel…
- Trump calls on Ilhan Omar to resign from Congress over fake name claimsAttorney Dan Schneider discusses President Donald Trump's calls for Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign over allegations surrounding her legal name. He explains the potential legal consequences, including deportation. Trump calls on Ilhan Omar to…
- Congress and bureaucrats try to catch up AI, with predictable resultsWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
- Lula wins fourth term in Brazil but faces hostile Congress and divided countryLula has now won four presidential elections Brazil's veteran left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been re-elected after a bitterly fought campaign, beating his right-wing rival Flávio Bolsonaro. It is Lula's fourth win in a…
- Parents shouldn’t need the help of Congress to see their children’s school curriculumFox News' Alexandria Hoff reports on parents' push for transparency and keeping politics out of schools. Philadelphia parents noticed troubling signs in their children’s social studies curriculum and asked to see all the materials. They…
- Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold CongressPresident Donald Trump joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss the economy, midterm elections, Iran and more. Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold Congress President Donald Trump joins 'Sunday…
- Trump proposes $5,000 voter dividend if GOP holds Congress, warns of 'economic depression' if Dems winPresident Donald Trump proposed a $5,000 dividend for adult U.S. citizens if Republicans hold the House and Senate majority, but he warned of a 1929-style economic depression under Democrats should the GOP lose power. Trump proposes $5,000…
- Majority Whip Emmer says Omar’s ‘days are numbered’ in Congress amid federal scrutinyFox News Majority Whip Emmer says Omar’s ‘days are numbered’ in Congress amid federal scrutiny House Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., comments on DOJ investigations into Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., over potential immigration fraud and…
- Voters angry about high prices may get little relief from the next CongressBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. If voters expect a new…
- Abdul El-Sayed parlayed his race-obsessed medical research to fast-track, fund journey to Congress: criticsMichigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed turned his weird science into a stepping stone, exploiting identity politics in academia to fast-track and fund his journey to Congress, according to critics and a Post review of his…
Related markets
All congress ›Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
8%Andy Kim
- Andy Kim8%▼ 1
- Kirsten Gillibrand8%
- Thom Tillis8%▼ 4
12 more
- John Fetterman8%
- Catherine Cortez Masto7%
- Raphael Warnock7%▲ 1
- Jacky Rosen7%
- Mark Warner7%
- Lisa Blunt Rochester7%▲ 1
- Alex Padilla7%▼ 2
- Mike Lee6%▲ 1
- Josh Hawley5%
- Jerry Moran5%▲ 2
- Ruben Gallego3%
- Rand Paul3%
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
242.6median
206254
Median 242.6
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
16.5median
1327
Median 16.5Middle half 14.8 – 18.8
Will the SAVE Act become law? (Before Jan 4, 2027)
4%chance
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? (Before election day 2026)
<1%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions