Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
30%December 31
- June 30, 202730%▼ 3
- December 3130%▲ 4
Install
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
The odds
20%chance▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 22% on Oct 20, 20% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | ▲ 2 | 17¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 8.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
Search ›-
Trump Asked Google To Rename Atlantic Ocean ‘Trump Ocean’Oct 22, 2026 at 04:59 AM EDT Oct 22, 2026 at 06:17 AM EDT President Donald Trump has claimed he spoke to Google about renaming a body of water after himself, saying the technology company rejected the idea because oceans border multiple… -
Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at President Donald Trump's Iowa rally as he calls on Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign from Congress. Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION 'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at… -
Could Ukraine win sans Trump?From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. By GREGORY SVIRNOVSKIY and GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING 10/22/2026 04:01 PM EDT President Donald Trump's tiff with Kyiv means President Volodymyr… -
Trump aide Corey Lewandowski "put in a box" by Trump and ordered to narrow focus to New HampshireUpdated on: October 14, 2024 / 7:23 PM EDT / CBS News As former President Donald Trump entered his final weeks of campaigning, the uneasy relationship between rival factions of his campaign's leadership has grown more testy, with sources… -
Trump Given 'Man Of The Century' AwardOct 23, 2026 at 03:01 AM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 06:00 AM EDT President Trump was given a “Man of the Century” award by a Republican congressional candidate on Thursday during a campaign rally in Iowa. The award was handed to Trump personally… -
Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy adPresident Trump sparred with a reporter over a controversial campaign ad from Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign featuring the estranged mother of opponent Amy Acton. Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy ad President… -
Trump defends Ramaswamy ad despite bipartisan backlashCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Trump defends… -
Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at rallyPresident Donald Trump mocks Rep. Ilhan Omar's "not to my knowledge" response when asked whether she was related to her former husband, bringing up the viral exchange during his campaign rally in Iowa ... Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at… -
BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized Ukraine ceasefireFirst lady Melania Trump announces she has personally secured a localized ceasefire in the city of Oleshky in southern Ukraine, allowing humanitarian aid to enter and civilians to evacuate safely. BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized… -
Trump’s Iran sanctions run into limitsThe Trump administration is steadily ratcheting up pressure on Iran with sanctions, but experts and former officials say the penalties thus far are having a limited effect on the Islamic Republic’s willingness to negotiate. Nate Swanson… -
Trump signs housing affordability executive orderThe order aims to reduce mortgage costs as interest rates soar before the midterms. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday aimed at reducing some costs associated with mortgages and boosting manufactured housing… -
America must reverse Trump’s moral squalorThe president shows a unique disregard for the opinions, norms and ideals of the nation – and, for that matter, humanity The Democrats’ focus on affordability seems to be a winning strategy (we’ll know for sure in a little over two weeks)…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
49%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar49%▲ 2
- Cassidy Hutchinson30%▼ 2
- John Brennan22%▼ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan17%▲ 3
- Anthony Fauci14%
- Fani Willis14%
- Gustavo Petro11%
- Jack Smith11%▼ 2
- Lisa Cook10%▼ 1
- Tim Walz10%
- James Clapper10%
- Andrew Weissmann10%▼ 1
- Gavin Newsom10%
- Peter Strzok9%
- Hunter Biden9%
- Keith Ellison9%
- Adam Schiff9%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom9%▲ 2
- Chris Krebs8%
- Lisa Monaco7%▼ 1
- Kimberly Guilfoyle7%
- Alvin Bragg6%▲ 3
- Letitia James6%▼ 4
- Jacob Frey6%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor6%▲ 1
- Mark Milley6%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney6%
- Elissa Slotkin6%
- Mark Kelly6%
- Joe Kent6%▲ 1
- Leon Black6%
- E. Jean Carroll6%▼ 1
- Christopher Wray5%
- Chris Christie5%▲ 1
- Tucker Carlson5%
- Reid Hoffman5%
- George Soros5%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Pam Bondi4%
- Jerome Powell4%
- Bill Clinton4%
- Barack Obama3%▼ 1
- Joe Biden3%
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?
23%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 202723%
Who will be arrested in 2026?
41%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar41%▼ 4
- John Brennan23%▲ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil14%▲ 2
22 more
- Anthony Fauci9%
- James Clapper8%▼ 2
- Letitia James8%▲ 1
- Adam Schiff7%
- Tom Homan6%▲ 1
- Lee Jae Myung6%
- Susan Rice6%▼ 1
- Lisa Cook6%
- Candace Owens5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu5%
- Lee Jun-seok5%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero5%▲ 1
- Loretta Lynch4%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Bill Clinton4%
- John Kerry3%
- Pam Bondi3%
- Brandon Johnson3%▼ 1
- Barack Obama3%
- Joe Biden3%
- Kash Patel3%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
60%Roybal v. Griffith
- Roybal v. Griffith60%▲ 3
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin14%▲ 1
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▲ 1
6 more
- Duncan v. Bonta6%▲ 1
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche5%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory5%▲ 1
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day3%▼ 2
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice1%
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.