Brazil Presidential Election
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro80%▲ 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%
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Israeli legislative election: how many seats will The Democrats win? (Oct 27, 2026)
The odds
8.61median
216
Median 8.61Middle half 6.98 – 9.97
How the odds have moved
Median: 8.25 on Oct 19, 8.61 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4 | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 6 | 90% | ▼ 1 | 85¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 113 |
| Above 8 | 60% | 56¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | ||
| Above 9 | 44% | ▼ 3 | 40¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 322 |
| Above 10 | 25% | ▼ 7 | 24¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 220 |
| Above 12 | 11% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.00 |
| Above 14 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Democrats
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Obama returning as campaign "closer-in-chief" for DemocratsFormer President Obama is hitting the campaign trail this weekend. Just how are Democrats banking on his star power to get them over the finish line? CNN's Arlette Saenz has the details. Obama returning as campaign ‘closer-in-chief’ for… -
Democrats face crack-up on Trump’s tariffsTrump’s aggressive — and unpopular — use of tariffs in his second term has created an opening for more trade-friendly voices in the party, after a decade in the political wilderness. Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed speaks… -
Where Democrats think Republican gerrymandering will backfireHouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is heading to Texas this weekend as Democrats become increasingly confident that GOP-led gerrymandering could backfire in both the Lone Star State and in Florida. Jeffries will campaign with Johnny… -
Democrat breaks away on pipelinesYour global guide to how energy demand is reshaping politics and policy. 10/22/2026 01:27 PM EDT With help from Zia Weise in Belgium, Brian Dabbs in Singapore, Sara Schonhardt and Zack Colman in the U.S., Mike Blanchfield in Canada… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
Democrats poised for significant House gains, Cook Political Report estimatesThe nonpartisan Cook Political Report projects Democrats will most likely flip between 12 and 22 seats in November — potentially giving them bigger majorities than the ones they won during blue waves in the 2006 and 2018 midterms. On… -
Map Shows Where Top 2028 Democrats Are Campaigning Ahead of MidtermsOct 23, 2026 at 06:38 PM EDT Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are hitting the campaign… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
Democrats see an opening in secretary of state races in red terrainAs the midterm battleground increasingly shifts to red territory, Democrats hope a favorable national environment will translate to winning lower-profile offices that have long eluded the party. As the midterm battleground increasingly… -
Democrat hoping to flip Nebraska House seat pushing for action on affordabilityCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrat hoping to… -
Democrats are dreaming of a 2018 repeat in a deep red Oklahoma districtBack in 2018, the last time Republicans faced an angry midterm electorate with President Donald Trump in the White House, Oklahoma’s 5th District wasn’t on the radar for most strategists in either ... Back in 2018, the last time… -
Surging turnout, with Democrats voting more: key takeaways from early voting dataWith just 11 days until the US midterm elections, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim Congress With just 11 days until the US midterm elections, early voting data is rolling in nationwide. Democrats need a net gain of four…
Related markets
All around the world ›Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
41%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%41%▲ 2
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%33%▼ 2
- Lula da Silva <4%19%
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%5%▼ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+1%▼ 1
- Lula da Silva 4-8%1%
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Next French Presidential Election
45%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen45%▼ 1
- Édouard Philippe17%▲ 1
- David Lisnard14%
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%▲ 1
- Raphaël Glucksmann4%▼ 1
- François Hollande2%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Gabriel Attal1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- Christine Lagarde<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Marion Maréchal<1%
- Natacha Polony<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Karim Bouamrane<1%
- Lucie Castets<1%
- Yannick Jadot<1%
- François Baroin<1%
- Anasse Kazib<1%
- Sylvain Durif<1%
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
71%Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia71%▼ 3
- Student List – Students Win28%▲ 1
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
- Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
- Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
- Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
- European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
- SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
71%Yashar
- Yashar71%▲ 1
- Likud28%▼ 2
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Brazil Presidential election winner?
81%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro81%▲ 3
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.