Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
11%chance
Install
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
The odds
24%At least 1
04
How the odds have moved
At least 1: 19% on Oct 20, 24% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 24% | 22¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 13.6K | |
| At least 2 | 11% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 7.0K |
| At least 3 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 9.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. House, House, Independents
Search ›-
2026 Massachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primary election resultsMassachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primary election results. The Globe is tracking the results from the 2026 Massachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primar ... 2026 Massachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primary… -
LCV Action Fund Announces Latest Endorsements for U.S. House of RepresentativesAction Fund, which works to elect candidates who will fight to lower energy costs, build a clean energy economy, and strengthen our democracy for all, announced endorsements for six candidates running ... LCV Action Fund Announces Latest… -
Israel detains U.S. House candidate, activists amid West Bank olive harvestThe Washington Post TEL AVIV — Israeli security forces on Wednesday detained dozens of volunteer monitors in an olive grove near Bethlehem, including a Democratic candidate for U.S. Congress. They also sealed off Palestinian farmland… -
Bob Harvie narrowly leads Brian Fitzpatrick in Bucks County’s closely watched U.S. House race, new poll findsA new Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll of 1st District voters finds that Democrat Bob Harvie is leading U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick 48% to 46%. Democrat Bob Harvie holds a narrow lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Brian… -
DECISION 2026: Tennessee U.S. House Dist. 3Tennessee’s 3rd Congressional District includes all of Hamilton, Bradley, McMinn, and Polk County. The battle for who represents the area at the national level includes Republican incumbent Charles “Chuck” Fleischmann and Democratic… -
Candidates compete for Issa's California seat in U.S. HouseIssa, a Republican from San Diego County, opted not to run for another term in the newly redrawn district. Editor's note: This concludes this week's series on the June 2 primary election in California. The stories include comments from… -
Democrat Nancy Lacore outlines priorities in South Carolina U.S. House District 1 raceCHARLESTON, S.C. (WTOC) - Democrat Nancy Lacore said ending corruption and lowering the cost of living are focuses of her campaign for the South Carolina U.S. House District 1 seat. Lacore is running against Republican Jenny Costa… -
Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt outlines priorities in South Carolina U.S. House District 1 raceCHARLESTON, S.C. (WTOC) - Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt said protecting her home and addressing affordability are driving her campaign for the South Carolina U.S. House District 1 seat in the Nov. 3 election. Honeycutt is running… -
With a U.S. House seat at stake, Washington Republican John Braun targets trans girls in sportsJohn Braun is championing Initiative 638 in a race against Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez that could help determine control of the House. Washington Sen. John Braun looks out onto the factory floor at Braun Northwest’s Chehalis… -
Tucson Now: Congresswoman Grijalva’s plan to keep U.S. House AZ-07With early voting underway and Election Day just around the corner, U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva joined Tucson Now to lay out her platform and make her pitch to voters across Arizona’s 7th Congressional ... TUCSON, Ariz. (13 News) - With… -
Vote Bill Hill for U.S. HouseCovering the Chilkat Valley and Haines, Alaska since 1966 Bill Hill, candidate for U.S. House of Representatives, is relatively new to the political scene and likely unknown to many Haines residents. We are writing to voice our support for…
Related markets
All congress ›Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
11%Thom Tillis
- Thom Tillis11%▼ 1
- Kirsten Gillibrand9%▼ 1
- Andy Kim8%
12 more
- Jacky Rosen7%
- John Fetterman7%
- Alex Padilla7%
- Raphael Warnock7%▼ 1
- Catherine Cortez Masto7%
- Mike Lee6%
- Mark Warner6%
- Josh Hawley6%
- Lisa Blunt Rochester5%
- Rand Paul5%▼ 2
- Jerry Moran5%
- Ruben Gallego3%▼ 1
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
239.7median
206254
Median 239.7Middle half 230.2 – 248
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.44%median
-100%100%
Median 9.44%Middle half 7.06% – 11.53%
Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed? (Before Jan 1, 2030)
28%Before Jan 1, 2030
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
- Before Jan 1, 202813%
- Before Jan 1, 202914%
1 more
- Before Jan 1, 203028%
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell? (Through Nov 2027)
96%On Nov 16, 2026
- On Nov 16, 202696%▼ 3
- On Nov 22, 202770%
- On Mar 15, 202768%
1 more
- On Dec 14, 202658%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions