Iowa ethanol production in 2026

Kalshi Economy Closes Jan 31, 2027 · $75.7K traded · $21.2K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

4.59median

4.205.10

Median 4.59Middle half 4.52 – 4.68

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.60 on Oct 20, 4.59 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 4.3 billion gallons	98%		97¢	98¢	$1.02	39.1K
Above 4.4 billion gallons	96%		95¢	96¢	$1.04	25.8K
Above 4.5 billion gallons	81%		80¢	81¢	$1.23	8.8K
Above 4.6 billion gallons	47%	▲ 1	46¢	48¢	$2.08	5.1K
Above 4.7 billion gallons	19%		18¢	19¢	$5.26	5.8K
Above 4.8 billion gallons	9%		8¢	9¢	$11.11	16.5K
Above 4.9 billion gallons	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.67	14.2K
Above 5.0 billion gallons	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.00	4.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iowa

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Iowa football takeaways from Hawkeyes' Minnesota stumbleYahoo Sports · 13 h agoIowa walked into Minneapolis with the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. They'll head back to Iowa City empty-handed after a 13-10 loss to the Gophers. The Hawkeyes' offense was putrid for 99% of this game. They turned the ball over four times…
Oil politics squeeze IowaPOLITICO · 37 h agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/23/2026 02:36 PM EDT And President Donald Trump just told reporters that the order came directly from him, another breach of DOJ independence: “I’m the…
Parallels to Iowa GreatnessYahoo Sports · 38 h agoI suppose it's possible I simply live in an insular bubble, but the vast majority of Hawkeye fans I interact with on a regular basis have a healthy flavor of skepticism. No, that's not true. Put more precisely, almost every Hawkeye fan I…
Instant Takeaways From Iowa Football's Loss To MinnesotaYahoo Sports · 15 h agoThe Iowa-Minnesota rivalry often brings out some of the most ugly football games the eyes can see, and that was certainly the case in Minneapolis on Saturday. The Hawkeyes and Gophers played a hard-fought, turnover-filled slugfest for 60…
10 days till Iowa Hoops: Jacob KochYahoo Sports · 23 h agoThe Hawks are taking on Minnesota later today but it doesn't mean we can't dabble in some basketball prep ahead of the first tip-off on November 3rd! Next up is Jacob Koch! #10 – Jacob Koch, G, 6'2", 189 lbs3rd year; Iowa City, IA; Iowa…
Unpacking Iowa's disastrous 13-10 loss at Minnesota | PODCASTYahoo Sports · 14 h agoAfter an inexplicable offensive performance, the Hawkeyes walk away from Huntington Bank Stadium with a 13-10 loss. The Register's Chad Leistikow and Tyler Tachman get a lot of feedback about th ... - Unpacking Iowa's disastrous 13-10 loss…
Iowa’s cancer problem is scrambling the midtermsCNN · 14 h agoAs the debate season kicked off in Iowa’s heated gubernatorial race, one question seemed to animate and, in some ways, unify the candidates. “What are the immediate and specific steps that you would take to combat Iowa’s cancer crisis?”…
Iowa football updates injury front before Minnesota gameYahoo Sports · 24 h agoWith kickoff for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy fast approaching, the Iowa football program provided a key injury update on some big names. The Hawkeyes released their Friday injury availability report yesterday. All things considered, it's…
What We Learned About Gophers in Defensive Showdown vs IowaYahoo Sports · 7 h agoThe last time the Minnesota Gophers played in front of a sellout crowd at Huntington Bank Stadium, they stunned Michigan and took The Little Brown Jug for the first time since 2014. Saturday, Iowa was in town and this time the Floyd of…
GAME THREAD: Iowa and Minnesota for Floyd of RosedaleYahoo Sports · 19 h agoThe Floyd of Rosedale trophy to commemorate the victor of the football game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Minnesota Golden Gophers on September ... Cincinnati hands No. 8 Texas Tech first loss of season - GAME THREAD: Iowa and…
Minnesota upsets No. 15 Iowa on walk-off field goalCBS Sports · 13 h agoDrake Lindsey and Jalen Smith connected on a 39-yard pass play on third down from the Minnesota 33 with 39 seconds left to set the Gophers up for the winning points. “I told the offense we were going to go win the game, but I told Jalen…
Iowa farmers continue backing Trump and GOP ahead of midtermsFox News · 9 h agoIowa GOP gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn joins ‘The Big Weekend Show’ to discuss diesel prices, farmers’ support for the GOP and his race against Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand. Iowa farmers continue backing Trump and GOP ahead of midterms…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIowa Renewable Fuels Association

Trading closesJan 31, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$75.7K (120,208 contracts)

This week$300

At stake$21.2K

In the news163 headlines today, 1,477 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.3 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.