Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states? (at the November 3, 2026 general election)
The odds
2median
06
Median 2Middle half 2 – 3
How the odds have moved
Median: 2 on Oct 20, 2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 6.1K | ||
| 1 | 15% | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.7K | |
| 2 | 40% | ▼ 3 | 36¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 13.4K |
| 3 | 23% | 19¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 7.9K | |
| 4 | 11% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.4K |
| 5 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 493 |
| At least 6 | 3% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | $16.67 | 277 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate and Governor, Harris
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‘Friday Follies’: New town, new accent for Kamala HarrisFox News analyst Raymond Arroyo discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ word of the day and the latest WNBA controversy on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ ... ‘Friday Follies’: New town, new accent for Kamala Harris Fox News analyst Raymond… - Former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns with Democrats in New HampshireFormer VP attends campaign event in Portsmouth Former Vice President Kamala Harris attended a campaign event in Portsmouth Saturday to support Democratic candidates for Congress, Senate, and governor. "So for the last year and a half, we…
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WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Chris Pappas for campaign rally in Portsmouth, NHFormer Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns alongside Democratic Senate nominee Chris Pappas at a rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Chris Pappas for campaign rally in Portsmouth, NH Former Vice President… -
Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme CourtFox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about the Supreme Court on ‘Fox & Friends.’ ... Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme Court Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses… -
Economic woes transform the Midwest into a massive midterms battlegroundDemocrats could be poised for a revival in the heartland, as furor over high costs and doubt about President Donald Trump’s willingness to change the nation’s trajectory threaten to loosen the GOP’s grip on working-class voters. A decade… -
Actor Dean Cain slams Kamala HarrisFox News Actor Dean Cain slams Kamala Harris Actor Dean Cain discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign trail tour on 'The Will Cain Show.' Actor Dean Cain discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris' comeback tour as she… -
Kamala Harris Stumps in Mississippi as GOP Moves to Protect Senate SeatOct 22, 2026 at 04:15 PM EDT Former Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning in Mississippi on Thursday for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom, as Republicans face an unexpectedly competitive contest in a state President… -
Greg Gutfeld: Kamala Harris is a firefighter who shows up after the fireFox News Greg Gutfeld: Kamala Harris is a firefighter who shows up after the fire ‘The Five’ co-hosts discuss former Vice President Kamala Harris’ speech in Las Vegas. -
WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Dem Senate nominee Scott Colom at Mississippi rallyFormer Vice President Kamala Harris joins Democratic nominee Scott Colom at a rally in Columbus, Mississippi, to energize voters with 12 days until the midterm elections. WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Dem Senate nominee Scott Colom at… -
Kamala Harris gets crickets from Mississippi rally crowd after butchering motivational quote: ‘Let me repeat that’Former Vice President Kamala Harris’ attempt to inspire voters at a Democratic rally in Mississippi fell flat Thursday after she was forced to repeat a confusing quote in a far-from-full high school gym. “You know, I mentor a lot of young… -
Map Shows Where Republicans Outspending Democrats in Key Senate RacesOct 21, 2026 at 09:54 AM EDT With two weeks to go until Election Day, Republicans continue to pour significantly more resources than their rivals into this year’s most crucial Senate battlegrounds. On Tuesday, the advertising analytics… - Kamala Harris rallies for Mississippi Senate candidate as she elevates profileBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The former vice…
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All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions