Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
11%chance▲ 3
Install
Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
The odds
34%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 34% on Oct 20, 34% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | ▲ 1 | 32¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 25.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: government shutdown, shutdown, Government
Search ›-
Government agencies are blaming the shutdown on Democrats. Ethics experts say it could be against the law.Handfuls of agencies posted statements to their websites Wednesday, alerting Americans that the government has officially shut down and that the "radical left” is responsible. The West Lawn of the Capitol and the National Mall stretch into… -
DOJ furloughs could impact domestic violence grants. Some fear that's the point.The grant managers sent home this week have typically worked through past government shutdowns. A person walks into Department of Justice headquarters in Washington, D.C. on the second day of a government shutdown, Oct. 2, 2025. | Francis… -
NYC Schools Chancellor Samuels meets with ‘fire-alarm’ Bowman for damage control after grillingIt’s a five-alarm fire at the Department of Education. Embattled New York City Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels is so desperate to put out the flames of his disastrous Tuesday forum with New York Times writer Nikole Hannah-Jones that he… -
AI-discovered security flaws trigger global website shutdownsCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. AI-discovered security… -
Mass Effect 5 trailer leaks following BioWare shutdownYesterday, EA shut down BioWare and canceled the studio's new Mass Effect game in development, but a trailer apparently representing the game was published on Reddit today. The trailer features "in-engine footage" and uses "pre-production… -
911 systems across California suddenly shutdown sparking chaosTwo major 911 systems across California suddenly shut down Thursday morning sparking chaos. Callers in Oakland and Riverside County could not get through to emergency dispatchers following the mass outage. Oakland Police Department… -
Congressman breaks down U.S. vs. France government spendingCongressman Ro Khanna (D-CA) breaks down the differences between U.S. and French government spending, arguing that investments in education, healthcare and technology are key to economic growth. Congressman breaks down U.S. vs. France… -
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… - Netanyahu orders full shutdown of West Bank after Hamas shooting wounds 5 IsraelisBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Two Palestinian gunmen…
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US accuses government contractor of leaking classified info to girlfriend’s SubstackThe US Justice Department accused a government contractor on Friday of leaking national defense information to his girlfriend, the publisher of a Substack newsletter. The FBI arrested Ian Brinksman, 42, on Friday following a search of… -
Libya’s GNU orders immediate shutdown of government systems over critical cybersecurity vulnerabilitiesLibya’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has ordered the immediate, temporary shutdown of all government systems, websites and databases running on the PHP programming language following warnings of critical cybersecurity… -
Anti-government violence in Bangladesh leaves nearly 100 deadMen run past a burning vehicle inside the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University Hospital, set on fire by protesters in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Aug. 4, 2024. | Rajib Dhar/AP DHAKA, Bangladesh — Nearly 100 people were killed and hundreds…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions