2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.09%median
-100%100%
Median 9.09%Middle half 6.77% – 11.23%
Install
Will the Clarity Act become law? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
The odds
25%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20262%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20276%
- Before Apr 1, 202713%▲ 3
- Before Jul 1, 202717%▲ 2
- Before Oct 1, 202719%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202825%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 20, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.7M | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.4M | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 713.2K | ||
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 517.2K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.39 | 2.4M | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 13% | ▲ 3 | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 107.0K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 17% | ▲ 2 | 15¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 97.0K |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 19% | ▲ 2 | 17¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 163.2K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 25% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 135.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Clarity Act
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CLARITY Act Failure Exposes Republican Split Over Stablecoin Yield RulesBlockchain & Crypto Journalist The Clarity Act’s Senate failure exposed another Republican split over stablecoin yield rules, according to Punchbowl News. Senior reporter Brendan Pedersen reported that seven Republicans backed an amendment… -
What the CLARITY Act setback means for credit union digital asset planningJoin us for a FREE WEBINAR on why financial health programs don’t pay off, and what does—Oct 28 at 12PM ET. Regulatory clarity and infrastructure readiness are long games. They move on parallel paths, and each influences the other. But… - Digital Chamber Advocates for Clarity Act at Money2020 EventCoinfomania Digital Chamber Advocates for Clarity Act at Money2020 Event Digital Chamber's CEO spoke on the Clarity Act with lawmakers. Here's what this means for digital asset regulation. Summary is AI generated, newsroom reviewed…
- Barrick Gold Lobbies Mining Regulatory Clarity ActThe third-quarter 2026 team: H.R. 1366, sponsored by Rep. Mark E. Amodei (R-NV-2), passed the House and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 357 on March 17, 2026. The Senate companion, S. 544, sponsored by Sen…
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CLARITY Act Dead, But XRP Is Safe? Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse Says ‘We Have Clarity’Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has admitted that the collapse of the CLARITY Act hurt. He also says XRP no longer needs Congress to settle the question that hung over it for years. Speaking during celebrations for Evernorth’s Nasdaq listing… - Senator Lummis Critiques Democrats Over Clarity ActKhushi is a passionate cryptocurrency writer with 3 years of experience in content writing. She has a keen interest in blockchain technologies, digital finance, and emerging crypto trends. With a focus on educational and technical content…
- White House Crypto Policy Role Remains Vacant With No Successor Named, Complicating CLARITY Act DebateA string of departures by senior White House officials overseeing cryptocurrency policy is fueling concern that coordination on digital-asset legislation and regulation could be disrupted. CoinDesk reported on October 18 that Patrick Witt…
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18 State Attorneys General Just Told the Senate the CLARITY Act Would Gut Their Ability to Fight Crypto FraudA bipartisan coalition argues the bill's 'qualified transaction' loophole would give the SEC indirect preemption authority, dismantling the state-level enforcement that has brought 330-plus anti-fraud actions since 2017. Nolan Pratt Money… -
SEC Chair Paul Atkins Vows Comprehensive Crypto Rules as CLARITY Act Faces SetbackThe CLARITY Act faces Senate obstacles, increasing attention on SEC regulatory initiatives, including temporary relief for certain tokenized stock trading. Patrick Witt’s departure from the White House Crypto Council brings leadership… - Crypto Currents: Clarity Act fails to advance in Senate voteAs bitcoin, ethereum and other cryptocurrencies see major legal, institutional, and technological developments, the financial landscape continues to adapt. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with the “Crypto Currents” weekly from The…
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CFTC advances crypto regulation plan after CLARITY Act defeat in SenateEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
CFTC’s Michael Passalacqua reveals plan B for crypto regulation after Clarity Act stallsCoinDesk’s The Policy Protocol hosts Rebecca Rettig and Renato Mariotti open on two hot topics: the CFTC’s interim final rule carving casino-style gambling out of the “swap” definition and the OCC’s “bombshell” report finding that…
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10%Thom Tillis
- Thom Tillis10%
- Mike Lee9%
- Raphael Warnock9%
12 more
- Andy Kim8%
- Jerry Moran7%
- Jacky Rosen7%
- Kirsten Gillibrand7%
- John Fetterman7%
- Alex Padilla7%
- Ruben Gallego7%
- Mark Warner6%
- Josh Hawley6%
- Lisa Blunt Rochester5%
- Rand Paul5%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.