US government budget balance in 2026
-7.89%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -7.89%Middle half -8.84% – -7.64%
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Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
How the odds have moved
Median: -2.8% on Oct 19, -2.8% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -4.5% of GDP | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above -4.0% of GDP | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above -3.5% of GDP | 89% | 85¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 251 | |
| Above -3.0% of GDP | 69% | 65¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 1.00 | |
| Above -2.5% of GDP | 22% | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | ||
| Above -2.0% of GDP | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Above -1.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Italy
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Italian-themed festival applies for Richmond eventA family-friendly Italian-themed festival could take place in south-west London in June. Sicilian-themed Marzamemi Festival has applied for a three-day event on Richmond Green from 25 June, offering live Italian music, banquets and food… -
Udinese vs AC Milan: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headFoul by Gonçalo Ramos (AC Milan). Christian Kabasele (Udinese) wins a free kick in the defensive half. Attempt saved. Keinan Davis (Udinese) left footed shot from the centre of the box is saved in the centre of the goal by Mike Maignan (AC… -
Protesters clash with riot police in Turin, ItalyNBC News Protesters clash with riot police in Turin, Italy - Lecce vs Juventus: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headBBC Italian Serie A Scores & Fixtures Italian Serie A Table - Position 1, 2, 3, 4 : UEFA Champions League
- Inter Milan vs Fiorentina: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headAttempt saved. Nicolò Barella (Inter Milan) right footed shot from outside the box is saved in the centre of the goal by David de Gea (Fiorentina). Assisted by Francesco Pio Esposito. Marcus Thuram (Inter Milan) wins a free kick in the…
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Moment Italian Police BLAST Protesters With Water Cannon as Clashes Erupt in RomeRiot police clashed with protesters in Paris on Saturday after a march over living costs drew around 110,000 people, according to France’s Interior Ministry. Footage captured demonstrators hurling projectiles, people being dragged away and… -
Italian police use a water cannon on protesters in RomeItalian police deployed a water cannon as officers faced off with protesters in Rome during demonstrations on Saturday evening. (Reuters.) ... Italian police use a water cannon on protesters in Rome Italian police deployed a water cannon… -
BBC Audio | Sunday Supplement | Budget, pylons, riots in Italy, EU, and is the cabinet bloated?As the chancellor prepares for his first budget, we'll consider what might be announced with economist Vicky Pryce. The Welsh government are consulting on banning pylons. Jonty Colchester, from the ... Budget, pylons, riots in Italy, EU… -
Lazio vs Parma: Italian Serie A - watch live coverageAttempt saved. El Bilal Touré (Parma) header from the centre of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Christos Mandas (Lazio). Assisted by Emanuele Valeri with a cross. Attempt missed. Mariano Troilo (Parma) header from the left… -
France see new round of protests; Riot police clash with demonstrators in ItalyCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 6pm CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6pm CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm What's in Season with Michael Marks CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Ina Garten’s secret to creamy scrambled eggs is an unexpected Italian stapleCelebrity chef Alex Guarnaschelli prepares her nostalgic "'80s Date Night" pasta sauce while entertaining the audience at the New York City Wine & Food Festival with stories about her cooking career, kitchen mishaps and favorite… - Napoli vs Roma: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headManager: Gian Piero Gasperini Second Half ends, Napoli 3, Roma 3. Foul by Wesley (Roma). Leonardo Spinazzola (Napoli) wins a free kick in the defensive half. Offside, Roma. Rodrigo Mora is caught offside. Attempt blocked. Sam Beukema…
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All growth & recession ›China’s government budget balance in 2026
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France’s government budget balance in 2026
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United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
-4.25%median
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Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
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Median -1.82%Middle half -2.21% – -1.53%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions