US government budget balance in 2026
-7.89%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -7.89%Middle half -8.84% – -7.64%
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United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-4.25%median
-6%-2%
Median -4.25%Middle half -4.79% – -3.72%
How the odds have moved
Median: -4.25% on Oct 20, -4.25% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -5.5% of GDP | 90% | 87¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 14.8K | |
| Above -5.0% of GDP | 80% | 77¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 13.2K | |
| Above -4.5% of GDP | 68% | 64¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 10.9K | |
| Above -4.0% of GDP | 32% | 31¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 4.0K | |
| Above -3.5% of GDP | 20% | 17¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 6.8K | |
| Above -3.0% of GDP | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | ||
| Above -2.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 671 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United Kingdom
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Wind Power's Fatal Flaw Comes Back to Bite the United KingdomThe United Kingdom’s power grid scrambled for electricity Tuesday as collapsing wind generation exposed a fundamental weakness in the country’s aggressive green energy buildout. Britain’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) warned the… -
United Kingdom prepares for Storm Boelo with strong winds and rainKOHA JONË United Kingdom prepares for Storm Boelo with strong winds and rain The United Kingdom is bracing for the second storm this weekend, as strong winds and heavy rain are expected to cause travel disruption and further power cuts in… -
Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom on the Postponement of Palestinian ElectionsSenator the Hon Penny Wong We, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom deeply regret the Palestinian President's decision to postpone the Palestinian Legislative Council elections as well as the… -
Royal Purple United Kingdom Crown Ears at Walt Disney WorldThe United Kingdom pavilion in EPCOT has a new royal purple ear headband featuring a crown on top. The ears and exterior band are made of a textured sparkly purple fabric. The same purple fabric creates the cap of the crown. The crown… -
United Kingdom Retail Sales falls 0.4% MoM in September vs. -0.1% estimatesRetail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) fell by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in September after rising by 0.7% in August (revised from 0.5%), the latest data published by the Office for National… -
OPCW Chief Visits United KingdomThe OPCW Director-General Sabrina Dallafior paid an official visit to the United Kingdom from 19 to 20 October 2026. During the visit, she delivered a keynote address at the Chemical Weapons Demilitarisation (CWD) Conference, lectured at… - United Kingdom Relaunches Be Ready Campaign, Urging Households To Stockpile Three Days SuppliesPublished 23 Oct 2026, 17:22 UTC Latest on this story24 Oct: UK Government Urges Households To Stock Three Days Of Food And Water Under “Be Ready”1 more Be Ready campaign asks households to keep three days of at-home supplies. Guidance…
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Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Announces IMCIVREE® (setmelanotide) Receives Expanded Marketing Authorization in the United Kingdom for Treatment of Obesity and Control of Hunger in Patients with Acquired...IMCIVREE initially received marketing authorization in the UK in 2021 for the treatment of obesity and control of hunger in patients with POMC, PCSK1 or LEPR deficiency and in 2022 for patients with Bardet-Biedl syndrome (BBS). In 2024… -
Oman and United Kingdom reaffirm commitment to cooperation and economic prosperityMuscat: The United Kingdom and the Sultanate of Oman commit to strengthen and deepen our relationship, monitor progress against agreed priorities, and ensure that cooperation remains focused on mutual benefit, Oman’s Vision 2040, the UK’s… - United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in September: Actual (-0.4%)USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose…
- United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.8%, below expectations (1%) in SeptemberUSD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose…
- United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) below expectations (1.5%) in September: Actual (0.8%)USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose…
Related markets
All growth & recession ›China’s government budget balance in 2026
-8.12%median
-10%-6%
Median -8.12%Middle half -8.41% – -7.74%
Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
-3.91%median
-5.5%-1.5%
Median -3.91%Middle half -4.28% – -3.64%
France’s government budget balance in 2026
-5.23%median
-7%-3%
Median -5.23%Middle half -5.46% – -5%
Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
-1.82%median
-4%0%
Median -1.82%Middle half -2.21% – -1.53%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions