China’s government budget balance in 2026
-8.12%median
-10%-6%
Median -8.12%Middle half -8.41% – -7.74%
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US government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-7.89%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -7.89%Middle half -8.84% – -7.64%
How the odds have moved
Median: -8.25% on Oct 20, -7.89% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -9.0% of GDP | 82% | 79¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 3.3K | |
| Above -8.5% of GDP | 61% | 55¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 12.2K | |
| Above -8.0% of GDP | 61% | 9¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 5.2K | |
| Above -7.5% of GDP | 11% | 8¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 11.8K | |
| Above -7.0% of GDP | 6% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 4.6K |
| Above -6.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Above -6.0% of GDP | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United States
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F1 2026 qualifying head-to-head: United States GPThis record is based exclusively on qualifying results so that grid penalties don't alter the statistics. When a driver can't put in a representative lap time due to a technical issue or an incident, this will be mentioned in the table. F1… -
F1 United States Qualifying: Important Takeaways For Sunday's RaceMercedes driver Kimi Antonelli ticked his first checkbox in his bid to clinch the championship in the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix. The championship leader produced a scintillating first run in the final session of qualifying, giving… -
F1 Fantasy: 3 Big Questions Ahead of the United States Grand PrixAUSTIN, Texas — Just a few hours remain until F1 Fantasy lineups lock for the United States Grand Prix. Several key decisions will decide whether our teams start the triple header on a high note, or if massive changes are needed for… -
United States Grand Prix: Formula One – live🏎️ Updates from Austin; race start 3pm CDT/8pm GMT 🏎️ Antonelli seizes US GP poll | Mail Tom with your thoughts On the US broadcast, Apple has decided to bring on as its expert … Apple CEO John Ternus. We find out that he likes driving and… -
Michigan showdown: Rogers claims that El-Sayed is 'most extreme candidate in the United States'In a Fox News Digital interview on the Michigan campaign trail, GOP U.S. Senate nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers reveals his strategy to win over Democrats who aren't 'comfortable' with President Donald Trump. Michigan showdown: Rogers… -
2026 United States Grand Prix picks, odds, grid, time: Formula One predictions, best bets from advanced modelThe model has also been scorching hot when it comes to picking F1 race events, nailing 35 winners dating back to 2023. Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays at motorsports betting sites could have seen huge returns. Now, the… -
Why Ferrari failed to deliver on its hype in F1's United States GP qualifyingFerrari had been pegged as the team to beat after practice at the United States Grand Prix, but ultimately found itself wanting when it came to qualifying and failed to find enough progression through Q3. Charles Leclerc had headlined both… -
United States Grand Prix: Formula One qualifying – live🏎️ Updates from Austin; start 10pm BST, 4pm local 🏎️ Giles Richards’ preview | Mail Philip double quotation markMany thought Russell [would be winning a maiden title] when the season started in Australia. Russell won his eighth career… - F1 United States GP: Final starting grid as multiple penalties reshape the orderKimi Antonelli will start the 2026 United States Grand Prix from pole position, with Max Verstappen alongside him on the front row. However, several penalties have reshuffled the starting order in Austin, while a late decision by Aston…
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Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical… -
Franco Colapinto goes viral after surprise Doctor Doom appearance at United States GPThe driver was handed the costume during a Williams fan zone in downtown Austin where the team was promoting its partnership with the upcoming film Avengers: Doomsday. Videos of the outfit were quickly shared throughout social media with…
Related markets
All growth & recession ›Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
-3.91%median
-5.5%-1.5%
Median -3.91%Middle half -4.28% – -3.64%
France’s government budget balance in 2026
-5.23%median
-7%-3%
Median -5.23%Middle half -5.46% – -5%
United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
-4.25%median
-6%-2%
Median -4.25%Middle half -4.79% – -3.72%
Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
-1.82%median
-4%0%
Median -1.82%Middle half -2.21% – -1.53%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions