Battleground Senate Combo: which states will Democrats win?

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1.1K today · $4.4K traded · $3.7K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

28%Democratic sweep
  • Democratic sweep28%▼ 14
  • Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio9%▲ 5
  • Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio6%▲ 4
  • Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska5%▲ 2
  • Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio3%▲ 3
  • Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska3%▲ 1
  • New Hampshire3%▲ 2
  • New Hampshire, Ohio3%▲ 2
  • Maine, New Hampshire3%▲ 2
  • Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio3%
  • Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio3%▲ 3
  • Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire3%▲ 2
20 more
  • Republican sweep2%▲ 2
  • Ohio2%▲ 2
  • New Hampshire, Alaska2%▲ 2
  • Michigan2%▲ 2
  • Michigan, Ohio2%▲ 2
  • Michigan, New Hampshire2%
  • Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio2%
  • Maine, Michigan2%▲ 2
  • Maine, Michigan, Ohio2%▲ 2
  • New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio2%▼ 2
  • Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska2%▲ 1
  • Alaska1%▲ 1
  • Alaska, Ohio1%▲ 1
  • Michigan, Alaska1%▲ 1
  • Michigan, Alaska, Ohio1%▲ 1
  • Maine1%▲ 1
  • Maine, Ohio1%▲ 1
  • Maine, Alaska1%▲ 1
  • Maine, Alaska, Ohio1%▲ 1
  • Maine, Michigan, Alaska1%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Democratic sweep: 39% on Oct 20, 28% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 9 PM ETDemocratic sweep: 50% → 28%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Democratic sweep 28% ▼ 14 28¢ 35¢ $2.86 6.9K
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio 9% ▲ 5 9¢ 12¢ $8.33 5.2K
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio 6% ▲ 4 6¢ 8¢ $12.50 4.2K
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska 5% ▲ 2 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 4.6K
Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio 3% ▲ 3 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 738
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska 3% ▲ 1 7¢ $14.29 299
New Hampshire 3% ▲ 2 6¢ $16.67 1.4K
New Hampshire, Ohio 3% ▲ 2 6¢ $16.67 2.4K
Maine, New Hampshire 3% ▲ 2 6¢ $16.67 1.2K
Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio 3% 6¢ $16.67 3.9K
Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio 3% ▲ 3 6¢ $16.67 1.2K
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire 3% ▲ 2 6¢ $16.67 1.2K
Republican sweep 2% ▲ 2 5¢ $20.00 1.8K
Ohio 2% ▲ 2 5¢ $20.00 2.5K
New Hampshire, Alaska 2% ▲ 2 5¢ $20.00 254
Michigan 2% ▲ 2 5¢ $20.00 1.6K
Michigan, Ohio 2% ▲ 2 5¢ $20.00 1.4K
Michigan, New Hampshire 2% 5¢ $20.00 3.7K
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio 2% 5¢ $20.00 7.6K
Maine, Michigan 2% ▲ 2 5¢ $20.00 1.4K
Maine, Michigan, Ohio 2% ▲ 2 5¢ $20.00 1.2K
New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio 2% ▼ 2 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 4.0K
Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 255
Alaska 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Alaska, Ohio 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Michigan, Alaska 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Michigan, Alaska, Ohio 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Maine 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Maine, Ohio 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Maine, Alaska 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Maine, Alaska, Ohio 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Maine, Michigan, Alaska 1% ▲ 1 2¢ $50.00 1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Battleground Senate Combo

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