Fed Decision in October?
85%No change
- No change85%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase14%▲ 2
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
15%Reserve President Rejected
- Reserve President Rejected15%▲ 2
- Trimmed Mean Emphasized14%▼ 1
- Dot Plot Omitted12%▼ 1
- Presser Skipped10%
- Reserve President Removed7%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve President Rejected | 15% | ▲ 2 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 7.2K |
| Trimmed Mean Emphasized | 14% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 3.5K |
| Dot Plot Omitted | 12% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 17.9K |
| Presser Skipped | 10% | 7¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 15.6K | |
| Reserve President Removed | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 184 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Reserve President Rejected, Trimmed Mean Emphasized
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Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?So who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously… - Concept 31: The Federal Reserve StructureThe Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It oversees the nation’s money supply (through monetary policy), processes payments, and supervises and regulates banks. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 in…
- The Federal Reserve: What Has Already Been Priced In?One of the recurring themes on Tech Trend Investments is the importance of understanding the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. During the episode, Lizabeth and Joseph discussed how investors begin positioning…
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K.C. Federal Reserve ag survey is positiveThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has released results of its third quarter ag credit survey of ag bankers. As you might expect, it’s a very positive report. The survey showed that Tenth District farmland values hastened their climb… -
Federal Reserve: US Loan Delinquencies Jump to 19.6%, Median Family Wealth Rises to $215,900Nearly 20% of indebted US families reported late loan payments, up from 12.2% in 2022, even as median household wealth rose to $215,900. Nearly one in five indebted American families reported falling behind on loan payments, according to… -
CVBA breakfast to feature Federal Reserve economist Ryo TashiroThe Cumberland Valley Business Alliance will bring a Federal Reserve economist to Chambersburg in December to provide an outlook on economic and labor market trends affecting the region. There is no denying the Pittsburgh Steelers are… -
Economic Expert Christina Romer Examines Federal Reserve Pressures Facing Our NationDr. Christina Romer, who advised President Obama through the Great Recession, comes to St. Benedict Monday night to talk about what's keeping the Federal Reserve up at night these days. Economic Expert Christina Romer Examines Federal… -
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh Prioritises Price Stability, Withholds Rate Signalsstreamlinefeed.co.ke Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has reaffirmed the central bank’s unwavering commitment to restoring price stability, while deliberately withholding any signals regarding the future path of interest rates… -
Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with Gardner Bancshares, Inc. and Small Business BankFor release at 11:00 a.m. EDT The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced the termination of the enforcement actions listed below: Gardner Bancshares, Inc., Lenexa, Kansas and Small Business Bank, Lenexa, Kansas Cease and Desist Order… -
Wash speaks highly of AI, will the Federal Reserve refrain from raising interest rates in October?This is the first time Walsh has systematically elaborated on his policy stance at a multilateral occasion since he took the helm of the Federal Reserve in May. On local time October 16, during the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International… -
Federal Reserve to hold AI hearing in San Francisco on November 16The Board of Governors and the San Francisco Fed are bringing their growing AI focus to the heart of the tech industry U.S. Government / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain) The Federal Reserve plans to hold an AI hearing in the San Francisco… -
Lawyers for Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook say White House hearing set up by Trump is 'biased'The Washington Post WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook’s lawyers say that a committee set up by the White House last week to investigate an accusation against her is “demonstrably biased,” though they did not close the door on…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 2
- No change19%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
64%No change
- No change64%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase33%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
81%chance▲ 3
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)20%▼ 2
- 3 (75 bps)10%
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.