Predictions › Politics › Trump administration
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Jerome Powell, Powell Search › No recent headlines name this market's subject.
October 31 14% ▼ 5 November 30 55% ▼ 5 December 31 77% ▼ 4
Vladimir Putin 85% Mohammed bin Salman 77% ▼ 3 Kim Jong Un 14% ▼ 17 11 more Aleksandr Lukashenko 11% ▼ 2 King Mohammed VI 11% ▼ 2 Changpeng Zhao 11% iShowSpeed 8% ▲ 5 Lai Ching-te 7% ▲ 3 Pope Leo XIV 5% MrBeast 5% Nick Fuentes 3% Yoon Suk Yeol 3% Nicolás Maduro 2% Jair Bolsonaro 2% ▼ 1 Russia / Ukraine 81% ▲ 9 Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times 79% ▼ 8 Animal 78% ▲ 17 19 more SI / Super Intelligence 76% ▲ 10 America First / Gulf of America 73% ▲ 11 Hormuz / Blockade 70% ▲ 11 Transgender 5+ times 68% ▼ 10 Data Center / Electric / Electricity 68% ▲ 28 Ass 65% ▼ 1 Drag Show 64% ▲ 1 AI / Artificial Intelligence 57% ▲ 13 Fentanyl / Deport / Deported 51% ▲ 20 Fertilizer / Rural 42% ▼ 4 Hell 15+ times 39% ▼ 15 Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency 39% ▲ 37 Tax 33+ times 37% ▼ 10 Maduro 28% ▲ 1 Star 27% ▼ 15 Gay / Palestine 25% ▲ 4 Regulation / Regulatory 21% ▼ 7 Bull / Bullshit 15% ▼ 26 -No Qualifying Event- <1% ▼ 7
38.55% 39.25%
Median 38.58% Middle half 38.61% – 38.75%
Anna Kelly 14% ▲ 3 Scott Jennings 14% ▼ 1 Elizabeth Pipko 6% ▲ 1 57 more Alina Habba 3% Steven Cheung 3% ▲ 2 Danielle Alvarez 3% Margo Martin 3% Kari Lake 2% No new person 2% ▲ 1 Rachel Campos-Duffy 2% Roma Daravi 2% Laura Loomer 2% ▲ 1 Tricia McLaughlin 2% Maria Bartiromo 2% ▼ 1 Karoline Leavitt 2% Jason Miller 1% Sage Steele 1% Tucker Carlson 1% Liz Huston 1% Natalie Harp 1% Spencer Pratt 1% Lara Trump 1% Jayme Franklin 1% Erika Kirk 1% Matthew Boyle 1% Taylor Budowich 1% Katie Miller 1% ▼ 3 Monica Crowley 1% Kush Desai 1% Ari Fleischer 1% Benny Johnson 1% Matt Walsh 1% Ben Shapiro 1% Jack Posobiec 1% Mike Cernovich 1% Dan Bongino 1% Kayleigh McEnany 1% Harrison Fields 1% Taylor Rogers 1% ▼ 1 Hogan Gidley 1% Katie Pavlich 1% ▼ 1 Lauren Bis 1% Pat Adams 1% Kaelan Dorr 1% Vanessa Broussard 1% Cara Castronuova 1% Mark Levin 1% Logan Paul 1% Jake Paul 1% Eric Daugherty 1% Ben Ferguson 1% Erin Elmore Scavino 1% ▼ 1 Tulsi Gabbard 1% Beni Rae Harmony 1% Peter Doocy 1% Sean Spicer 1% Marco Rubio 1% Kat Timpf 1% Kaylee McGhee White 1% George Santos 1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Settles on The Washington Post, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal
Trading closes Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Traded $575 (19,155 contracts)
This week $575
At stake $253
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules If the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell after May 04 02:00 PM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .