When will Anthropic release Opus 6?

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $1.7K traded · $672 at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

14%Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 1, 20264%
Before Nov 16, 202610%
Before Dec 1, 202614%

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 1, 2026: 7% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026	4%			$25.00	13.3K
Before Sep 16, 2026	1%			$100.00	7.5K
Before Oct 1, 2026	3%			$33.33	3.4K
Before Oct 16, 2026	2%			$50.00	13.9K
Before Nov 1, 2026	4%	1¢	6¢	$16.67	21.4K
Before Nov 16, 2026	10%	7¢	13¢	$7.69	6.00
Before Dec 1, 2026	14%	10¢	18¢	$5.56	34.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude, Opus

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Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.CBS News · 34 h agoOctober 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's…
Claude Duet app is Anthropic's bet on agentsTechCrunch · 2 days agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. The AI world is flooded with personal and productivity-based assistants, with new ones launching every week. Now, Anthropic is entering this battle in the hopes of gaining…
Chinese AI model Kimi K3.1 Pro is closing in on Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5The Decoder · 30 h agoMoonshot AI's new reasoning model Kimi K3.1 Pro lands at number four on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, just 3 points behind the top proprietary models. Chinese AI company Moonshot AI has released Kimi K3.1 Pro, a post-trained…
Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 tops AI index with 61.7 scoreCrypto Briefing · 2 days agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Anthropic Launches Claude Duet AI Agent Powered by Claude Opus 5.5explore.n1n.ai · 3 days agoAnthropic has announced Claude Duet, a new AI agent built on Claude Opus 5.5 that competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, offering workflow automation for professionals. The landscape of autonomous workflow automation is shifting…
Anthropic's Claude 5.5 family: Opus, Sonnet and Haiku releasedDEV Community · 3 days agoAnthropic's announcements page records three model releases in the Claude 5.5 line, issued within a few weeks of each other in late September and early October 2026. Claude Opus 5.5 (Sep 22, 2026). Anthropic says it leads in agentic coding…
Anthropic takes on Muse with Claude Duet, its new AI agentThe Verge · 3 days agoAnthropic just announced an AI agent competitor to Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots: Claude Duet. The new agent, designed for professionals and small business owners, is launching as a "research preview," according to Anthropic, and it's…
Claude Opus 5.5 vs Sonnet 5.5 for coding agents: is Opus worth it?DEV Community · 44 h agoOriginally published on the QuickSilver Pro blog. Claude Opus 5.5 costs $1.00 / $5.00 per million tokens on QuickSilver Pro, against $0.50 / $2.50 for Claude Sonnet 5.5. The question for anyone running a coding agent is whether Opus buys…
Anthropic announces preview of Claude Duet, a personal AI agent to take on Muse, DotsCNBC · 3 days agoAnthropic on Wednesday announced a preview of Claude Duet, an artificial intelligence agent that will likely challenge OpenAI's Dots and Meta's Muse offerings. Claude Duet is designed for small businesses and professionals, Anthropic said…
Kimi K3.1 Pro API Pricing: Half of Claude Opus 5.5, Same as Sonnet 5.5Tokely · 21 h agoMoonshot AI released Kimi K3.1 Pro at $2 per 1M input tokens and $10 per 1M output tokens. That matches Claude Sonnet 5.5 and cuts Claude Opus 5.5 pricing in half. For long prompts without tiered pricing penalties, Kimi K3.1 Pro provides…
Alloy joins Anthropic's Claude Partner NetworkYahoo Finance · 40 h agoThe Atlanta-based integrated marketing agency builds custom AI tools on Claude for brands and will certify its team through the Anthropic Partner Academy. Atlanta, Oct. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alloy has joined Anthropic's Claude…
Vibe Theft Auto: Anthropic Opus, GTA 6, and a potential fade tradeSeeking Alpha · 34 h agoVibe coding, which is the practice of describing what you want to an AI model in plain language and letting it write, test, and fix the code, became a major topic after the release of Opus 5.5. That ... The adoption of AI around the video…

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Median 19.86%Middle half 19.72% – 20.04%

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

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October 2715%▲ 5
October 266%▲ 1

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October 282%▼ 1
October 292%▼ 1
October 301%
October 251%▲ 1
October 311%
October 201%▼ 12
October 24<1%▼ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
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Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAnthropic

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.7K (59,570 contracts)

This week$1.7K

At stake$672

In the news211 headlines today, 2,024 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.