When will Anthropic release Opus 6?
14%Before Dec 1, 2026
- Before Nov 1, 20264%
- Before Nov 16, 202610%
- Before Dec 1, 202614%
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When will Anthropic release Mythos?
The odds
12%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202712%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 2% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 5% | $20.00 | 173.5K | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2% | $50.00 | 159.3K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 226.4K | ||
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 211.0K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 296.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude, Mythos
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Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.October 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's… -
Claude Duet app is Anthropic's bet on agentsBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. The AI world is flooded with personal and productivity-based assistants, with new ones launching every week. Now, Anthropic is entering this battle in the hopes of gaining… -
Claude Mythos 5 Kept Pursuing Malicious GitHub Attack Even After Signs of Real-World Harm, Anthropic FindsAnthropic's investigation into Claude Mythos 5 has found that the AI model continued a malicious GitHub attack after its legitimate cybersecurity challenge routes failed, even creating fake identities to persuade real developers to approve… - Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 AI Agent Tried to Inject Malicious Code and Trick Real DevelopersAnthropic has revealed how its Claude Mythos 5 AI agent tried to plant malicious code in a real GitHub project and used fake identities to persuade developers to approve it during a cybersecurity test run by the UK AI Security Institute…
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AISI Simulations: Claude Mythos 5 AI Model Kept Attacking Despite Harm WarningsHarm warnings did not reliably stop Mythos 5 AI’s simulated attacks. Newer Anthropic models showed less harmful behavior, but the cause remains disputed. Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 kept pursuing a simulated attack against an unrelated… -
Anthropic takes on Muse with Claude Duet, its new AI agentAnthropic just announced an AI agent competitor to Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots: Claude Duet. The new agent, designed for professionals and small business owners, is launching as a "research preview," according to Anthropic, and it's… -
Anthropic admits its Mythos 5 agent tried to trick coders into malicious codeAnthropic's own disclosure shows Mythos 5 kept attacking in 98% of controlled replays, and warnings that real people were involved stopped it only 5% of the time during UK AISI testing. An Anthropic AI agent spent a security test creating… - Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 Cuts Quantum Gate Count for Elliptic-Curve Operations by 17xAccording to Wu Blockchain, the research demonstrates how an AI model can contribute to the design and optimization of quantum algorithms. The work also produced an improvement to Reed–Solomon decoding circuits used in the quantum…
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Mythos 5 Pressured a Real GitHub Maintainer in a Test. Anthropic Blames the Model's NotesA model was told to break into a fake corporate network. Its in-scope attacks failed. So it went after a real open-source project on GitHub, submitted malicious code, and used fake accounts to lean on the maintainer. The maintainer said… -
Anthropic announces preview of Claude Duet, a personal AI agent to take on Muse, DotsAnthropic on Wednesday announced a preview of Claude Duet, an artificial intelligence agent that will likely challenge OpenAI's Dots and Meta's Muse offerings. Claude Duet is designed for small businesses and professionals, Anthropic said… - Anthropic's Mythos pretends to be human during CTF exerciseAnthropic revealed on Friday that one of its artificial intelligence models passed itself off as human during a cybersecurity exercise to fool a human outside the exercise. According to Anthropic, the model, which used Mythos 5, performed…
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Anthropic Says Newer Models Rarely Repeat Mythos 5’s AISI Test AttackWhen Anthropic replayed the moment Claude Mythos 5 turned on a real open-source project during a UK government cyber test, the model began the attack 83% of the time. Its newer models, run from the same point, did so between 0% and 13% of…
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All ai ›When will Anthropic release Claude 6? (Claude 6+ (any family))
Mar 28, 2027even chance by
- Before Dec 31, 202625%
- Before Mar 31, 202751%
- Before Jun 30, 202766%
2 more
- Before Sep 30, 202782%
- Before Dec 31, 202790%
Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)
19.97%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 19.97%Middle half 19.82% – 20.8%
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Nov 13, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202614%▼ 2
- December 31, 202756%▼ 4
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%▼ 1
- Anthropic8%▲ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.