China strategic oil inventories in Q3 2026

Kalshi Economy Closes Nov 10 · $152 traded · $62 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

1,459median

1,3501,650

Median 1,459Middle half 1,411 – 1,499

How the odds have moved

Median: 1,460 on Oct 19, 1,459 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 1,400 million barrels	81%	76¢	85¢	$1.18	105
Above 1,450 million barrels	56%	51¢	60¢	$1.67	34.00
Above 1,500 million barrels	25%	20¢	29¢	$3.45	166
Above 1,550 million barrels	5%	1¢	8¢	$12.50
Above 1,600 million barrels	4%	1¢	6¢	$16.67	234

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan

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Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to Chinathe Guardian · 3 days agoSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power…
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland market@ChinaDailyApp · 20 h agoI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese…
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to China@ChinaDailyApp · 48 h agoOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering…
Western luxury falters in Chinasemafor.com · 24 h agoWestern luxury brands have lost roughly $280 billion in value this year as Chinese consumers spend more on domestic products but less overall. Chinese producers are increasingly competing with Western challengers not only on price but on…
Massive waves thrash Taiwan as super typhoon Champi slams islandNew York Post · 2 days agoWild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. Wild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries.
Typhoon Champi roars towards Taiwan, Japan and China bringing heavy rain and windBBC News · 4 days agoTaiwan is bracing for powerful Typhoon Champi, which is set to make landfall on Friday with gusts of up to 173 kph (107mph) and a 320km radius that will envelope the entire island Taiwanese authorities have urged people to stay away from…
Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanMacau Business · 2 days agoA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was…
Obama: "We Welcome China's Rise"CBS News · 15 h agoJanuary 20, 2011 / 9:58 AM EST / CBS News China's rapid growth is often painted as a threat to American interests. But President Obama said today that the country's economic progress benefits the United States and opens the door to greater…
Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanGulf Times · 32 h agoA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
Russia Trains China’s Army for Taiwan While Beijing Fuels Moscow’s WarThe Gateway Pundit · 42 h agoRussia is training Chinese soldiers in drone warfare and urban combat and has agreed to equip and train a battalion of Chinese paratroopers, while China supplies 90 percent of the sanctioned technology entering Russia. “For decades, Russia…
Taiwan tightens semiconductor export controls on Huawei and SMIC amid US-China tech rivalryCryptoSlate · 2 days agoTaiwan has added Huawei and SMIC to its high-tech export blacklist, tightening controls amid US-China tech competition. The updated Strategic High-Tech Commodities Entity List, released by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, now…
Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around IslandNTD · 3 days agoChina is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, with Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels operating in waters around the island every day. What would you like to watch today? Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around Island What Pollsters…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Energy Information Administration

Trading closesNov 10, 2026 11:59 AM ET

Traded$152 (539 contracts)

This week$8

At stake$62

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 were above 1,400 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions