Poland rate decision in December (Dec 2, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 2 · $55 today · $63 traded · $63 at stake · prices read 11 h ago

The odds

78%Maintain current rate
  • Maintain current rate78%▼ 6
  • Hike 1-25bps15%▲ 7
  • Cut 1-25bps3%▼ 1
  • Cut more than 25bps2%▼ 1
  • Hike more than 25bps2%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 81% on Oct 31, 78% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Maintain current rate 78% ▼ 6 78¢ 86¢ $1.16 75.00
Hike 1-25bps 15% ▲ 7 11¢ 20¢ $5.00
Cut 1-25bps 3% ▼ 1 1¢ 5¢ $20.00
Cut more than 25bps 2% ▼ 1 5¢ $20.00 50.00
Hike more than 25bps 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Poland

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  • Republic of Ireland to face Spain as NI draw PolandBBC Sport · 3 days agoThe 2027 Nations League will take place from February to June The Republic of Ireland will face world champions Spain in the 2027 Nations League, while Northern Ireland take on Poland in League B. Poland, who face the Republic of Ireland…
  • Poland Moves To Secure Border With Russia After ‘Disturbing Movement’Newsweek · 3 days agoNov 03, 2026 at 07:07 AM EST Poland has sent police units to its border near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave because of the threat of armed incursion by Moscow, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said. Tusk told a government meeting on…
  • Poland deploys counterterrorism police near Russian border amid sabotage warningsThe Kyiv Independent · 3 days agoPoland has deployed police counterterrorism units near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave following intelligence warnings of possible sabotage in the coming days, Polish media reported on Nov. 2. The units are working alongside the military…
  • Lawfare runs amok from Brazil to Poland — putting democracy in dangerNew York Post · 3 days agoPolitics has high enough stakes without the losers being sent to prison — or losing their heads. Jailing opponents or condemning them to death is what dictatorships do, not democracies. But times are changing, rapidly — and democracy isn’t…
  • Poland's constitutional crisis deepens as Prime Minister Tusk faces accusations of power grabFox News · 3 days agoFriday’s late-night confrontation at Poland's Constitutional Tribunal, which drew riot police, protesters and prompted President Karol Nawrocki to turn his plane around and return to Warsaw, has reignited a bitter debate over whether Prime…
  • The Guardian view on Poland’s political turmoil: an ominous portent of bigger battles to comethe Guardian · 3 days agoDonald Tusk is attempting to restore legitimacy to the country’s constitutional court. In a polarised country and continent, that carries political risksThe Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, must occasionally look towards Budapest and…
  • EU Commission backs Poland government over constitutional court crisisThe Kyiv Independent · 5 days agoBRUSSELS, Belgium — The European Commission reaffirmed the Polish parliament's right to appoint judges to the country's top court on Nov. 1, a clear alignment with the center-right government of Donald Tusk. Tusk's government is fighting…
  • Tusk defends overhaul of Poland’s constitutional court despite proteststhe Guardian · 5 days agoPrime minister says shake-up is vital to restore tribunal crippled by years of political disputes Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, has vowed to see through a contested overhaul of the country’s constitutional court, declaring that “in…
  • Bitter spat between Poland’s pro-Europe PM and pro-Trump president eruptsCNN · 5 days agoPoland is in the throes of a constitutional crisis as a battle over the future of the country’s highest court ignites another confrontation between the country’s president and prime minister, The crisis came to a head on Friday when…
  • Poland Hybrid AttackThe Herald Journal · 3 days agoThe Herald Journal - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) FILE - Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk speaks with the media as he arrives for the EU Summit in Nicosia, Cyprus, on April 24, 2026. Tusk…
  • Poland JusticeBluefield Daily Telegraph · 3 days agoBluefield Daily Telegraph Suspended President of the Polish Constitutional Tribunal Bogdan Swieczkowski, center, attends a protest in front of the Constitutional Court in Warsaw, Poland, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. - Princeton police officer…
  • Poland, UK Advance Defense CooperationAviation Week Network · 3 days agoPoland and the UK are furthering their defense relationship through a new three-year cooperation plan. Poland, UK Advance Defense Cooperation Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and UK Defense Secretary Wes Streeting met in…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions