What will Mark Carney say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Kalshi Mentions › Politicians Closes Dec 2 · $66 today · $442 traded · $437 at stake · prices read 55 min ago

The odds

76%Tariff
  • Tariff76%
  • Ukraine / Ukrainian69%▼ 4
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability66%
  • Rare Earth / Mineral65%▲ 9
  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline58%▼ 12
  • China / Chinese53%
  • USMCA / CUSMA49%
  • Event does not qualify6%

How the odds have moved

Tariff: 75% on Oct 19, 76% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Tariff 76% 60¢ 81¢ $1.23 200
Ukraine / Ukrainian 69% ▼ 4 19¢ 46¢ $2.17 17.00
Afford / Affordable / Affordability 66% 53¢ 65¢ $1.54 7.00
Rare Earth / Mineral 65% ▲ 9 49¢ 66¢ $1.52 292
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 58% ▼ 12 42¢ 53¢ $1.89 2.00
China / Chinese 53% 28¢ 56¢ $1.79 119
USMCA / CUSMA 49% 16¢ 45¢ $2.22 40.00
Event does not qualify 6% 1¢ 10¢ $10.00 5.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New York Times DealBook Summit, NYT DealBook Summit, Mark Carney

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What will Trump say during his rally in Corinth, Mississippi?

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  • China / Chinese96%
  • Nuclear (3+ times)93%
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  • Ilhan / Omar93%
  • Iran (5+ times)92%
  • America First91%
  • Tariff (3+ times)90%
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  • Russia / Ukraine79%
  • Made in America / American Made77%
  • ICE76%
  • Gulf of America75%
  • Supreme Court72%
  • Kamala63%
  • Elon / Musk57%
  • Veteran53%
  • Data Center39%
  • Israel / Israeli38%
  • Blockade31%
  • Electricity27%
  • Fraud (3+ times)25%
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence24%
  • Insurance22%
  • Drill Baby Drill20%
  • Social Security (5+ times)17%
  • Trump Account13%
  • Deport / Deported / Deportation12%
  • Windmill11%
  • Fentanyl10%
  • Palestine / Palestinian9%
  • Hegseth8%
  • Ceasefire4%
  • Crypto / Bitcoin2%
  • Peace in the Middle East1%
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What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?

95%Save America Act
  • Save America Act95%▲ 1
  • Cheat / Cheater / Cheating95%▲ 2
  • Barack Hussein Obama89%▲ 1
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  • Sleepy Joe87%▼ 1
  • America First87%▲ 9
  • China / Chinese86%▲ 5
  • Sanctuary86%▲ 5
  • Tariff (3+ times)83%▲ 1
  • Russia / Ukraine83%▲ 11
  • France82%▲ 1
  • Iran (5+ times)82%▲ 2
  • Hormuz81%▲ 14
  • Nuclear (3+ times)78%▼ 9
  • Supreme Court77%▼ 7
  • ICE76%▼ 9
  • Drill Baby Drill73%▲ 8
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  • Data Center49%▲ 4
  • Blockade45%▼ 11
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  • AI / Artificial Intelligence26%▼ 4
  • Social Security (5+ times)25%
  • Fraud (3+ times)24%▲ 1
  • Trump Account22%▼ 8
  • Deport / Deported / Deportation21%▼ 7
  • Windmill19%▲ 2
  • Fentanyl19%▲ 4
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  • Event does not qualify3%▲ 1
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What will Mike Sicilia say during Oracle AI World keynote?

100%Fusion Claw
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  • Sovereign17%▼ 34
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  • Debt7%▼ 13
  • Backlog6%▼ 6
  • Stargate1%▼ 6
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What will Trump say during his rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?

95%Save America Act
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  • Barack Hussein Obama88%▲ 1
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  • Hormuz78%▲ 5
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  • Made in America / American Made69%▲ 6
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  • Iran / Iranian88%
  • Housing / Rent83%
  • Corrupt / Corruption83%
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  • Trump (5+ times)80%
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  • Data Center73%
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  • Social Security66%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions