Which Canadian provinces will call a snap election before 2028?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $106 today · $2.5K traded · $2.3K at stake · prices read 33 min ago

The odds

53%Manitoba
  • Manitoba53%▼ 8
  • Alberta25%▼ 1
  • Nova Scotia11%
  • Newfoundland and Labrador11%
  • Ontario9%
  • Saskatchewan9%
  • New Brunswick9%
  • Prince Edward Island9%
  • Quebec6%

How the odds have moved

Manitoba: 61% on Oct 20, 53% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 5 PM ETManitoba: 60% → 53%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ British Columbia 99% $1.01 2.2K
Manitoba 53% ▼ 8 48¢ 58¢ $1.72 600
Alberta 25% ▼ 1 20¢ 30¢ $3.33
Nova Scotia 11% 6¢ 15¢ $6.67
Newfoundland and Labrador 11% 6¢ 15¢ $6.67
Ontario 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Saskatchewan 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
New Brunswick 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Prince Edward Island 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Quebec 6% 2¢ 10¢ $10.00 200

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Nova Scotia

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions