Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202817%▼ 2
- December 31, 202924%
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Number of data centers in California this year? (December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET)
The odds
313.0median
295370
Median 313.0Middle half 305.5 – 320.6
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 300 | 88% | ▲ 4 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 245 |
| At least 305 | 77% | ▲ 9 | 73¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 3.2K |
| At least 315 | 44% | ▲ 4 | 39¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 2.7K |
| At least 325 | 11% | ▼ 4 | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.8K |
| At least 340 | 7% | ▼ 3 | 2¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 120 |
| At least 355 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 44.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: PM ET, California
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All tech & science ›Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
5%December 31
- October 311%
- December 315%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
73%Google
- Google73%▲ 3
- Anthropic24%▼ 5
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)
26.49%median
21.6%29%
Median 26.49%Middle half 25.64% – 27.23%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 27, 2026even chance by
- October 2120%▼ 22
- October 2240%▼ 22
- October 2440%▼ 33
2 more
- October 3175%▼ 7
- December 3198%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.1Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.
- Reaches $1.5T91%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.