Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $13 today · $206 traded · $148 at stake · prices read 82 min ago

The odds

52%Kimberly Yee

Kimberly Yee52%▼ 1
Teresa Leyba Ruiz46%▲ 3
Stephen Neal Jr.1%
Gerard Davis1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Kimberly Yee: 52% on Oct 19, 52% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Kimberly Yee	52%	▼ 1	47¢	57¢	$1.75	35.00
Teresa Leyba Ruiz	46%	▲ 3	41¢	51¢	$1.96	170
Stephen Neal Jr.	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	4.4K
Gerard Davis	1%	▼ 1		2¢	$50.00	4.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction, Kimberly Yee, Teresa Leyba Ruiz

Search ›

School Choice Could Prove Pivotal in Some Midterm Races This FallEducation Week · 5 days agoEconomic issues are top of mind for many voters as they head to the polls for the midterm elections. But education—in particular, school choice—is also playing a role in some major contests. While private school choice, such as vouchers…
Tucson Now: Dr. Stephen Neal Jr.'s plan for Arizona State Superintendent of Public Instruction@KOLDNews · 11 days agoKOLD Tucson Now: Dr. Stephen Neal Jr.'s plan for Arizona State Superintendent of Public Instruction Motorcyclist dies in crash near 36th, Campbell in Tucson Pima County Sheriff’s Department rounds up domestic violence suspects 13 Sports At…
Hurricane Season for Arizona Republicans?Highground Inc. · 12 days agoState Treasurer Democratic candidate Nick Mansour now holds a 9.2-point advantage over Republican Elijah Norton (44.5% Mansour/35.3% Norton) in the race for Arizona State Treasurer. Mansour’s lead among unaffiliated voters has grown from…
Skye Fernandez's plan for TUSD Governing Board@KOLDNews · 12 days agoKOLD Skye Fernandez's plan for TUSD Governing Board Pima County Sheriff’s Department rounds up domestic violence suspects 13 Sports At The Half Tucson Now: Dr. Stephen Neal Jr.'s plan for Arizona State Superintendent of Public Instruction
President Trump’s Arizona rally: Who’s In, who’s out?Arizona Daily Star · 12 days agoGubernatorial nominee Rep. Andy Biggs will speak at President Donald Trump's rally Wednesday in Bullhead City, while at least one other GOP contender in a close race will skip the event less than three weeks before Election Day. Biggs is a…
New U of A study finds Arizona's controlled substances law workedEastern Arizona Courier · 13 days agoTUCSON — An Arizona law requiring an overdose-reversal medication to be prescribed alongside high-dose opioids was associated with increased access to that medication, including among patients not covered by the requirement, according to…
Who is sending misleading text messages to Arizona voters?KJZZ · 13 days agoSomeone is sending misleading pro-Republican text messages to Arizona voters ahead of the November election. One message includes what it calls the “official 2026 Independent voter guide.” “This is the official independent voter guide of…
New Poll Shows Mayes, Petersen Tied In Arizona Attorney General Race - AZ FREE NEWS@AZFreeNews · 13 days agoDemocratic Attorney General Kris Mayes and Republican challenger Warren Petersen each received 45% support among likely voters in a newly released Equis Research survey, while Gov. Katie Hobbs led Republican Andy Biggs, 49% to 43%. The…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onArizona Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$206 (8,927 contracts)

Today$13

At stake$148

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Gerard Davis wins the 2026 Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions