Anthropic market share this week (Anthropic market share - Oct 19, 2026)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes tomorrow 11:59 PM ET · $8.7K today · $98.2K traded · $50.9K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

5.57%median

3.3%6.8%

Median 5.57%Middle half 5.27% – 5.84%

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.97% on Oct 20, 5.57% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 3.7%	100%		99¢			4.2K
Above 4.1%	100%		99¢			5.7K
Above 4.4%	100%		99¢			2.7K
Above 4.6%	100%		99¢			4.2K
Above 4.7%	100%		99¢			9.6K
Above 4.8%	99%	▲ 1	98¢		$1.01	15.8K
Above 4.9%	96%	▼ 3	92¢		$1.04	17.7K
Above 5.0%	96%	▼ 1	94¢	99¢	$1.01	17.3K
Above 5.4%	65%	▲ 32	22¢	33¢	$3.03	34.6K
Above 6.1%	2%	▲ 1		3¢	$33.33	21.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude

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Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.CBS News · 33 h agoOctober 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 4 h agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Elvis Presley Rightsholders Sue Anthropic for Training on 274 Songs Without PermissionRolling Stone · 6 h agoBillboard first reported that Authentic Brands Group, the licensing group that controls the King’s music and likeness, filed its lawsuit Friday, alleges that Anthropic — the AI giant behind Claude — infringed on the rights of 274 of…
Claude Mythos 5 Kept Pursuing Malicious GitHub Attack Even After Signs of Real-World Harm, Anthropic FindsInternational Business Times · 16 h agoAnthropic's investigation into Claude Mythos 5 has found that the AI model continued a malicious GitHub attack after its legitimate cybersecurity challenge routes failed, even creating fake identities to persuade real developers to approve…
Anthropic Sued For Stealing Elvis Presley Music to Train AI: ‘Deeply Protective of These Iconic Songs’Billboard · 10 h agoThe owners of The King's IP are cracking down on the tech giant, adding one of music's most legendary figures to the massive legal battle over AI music. The new lawsuit, filed Friday (Oct. 23) and first reported by Billboard, claims that…
How I Vibe Coded My Smart TV—And Claude Killed ItDecrypt · 26 h ago"I have to be straight about my part in this." Every AI user knows and dreads these words. The AI just screwed up, and it’s about to tell me how bad. It all started when I decided to vibe code my TV. People have been vibe-coding their…
Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 AI Agent Tried to Inject Malicious Code and Trick Real DevelopersCyber Security News · 17 h agoAnthropic has revealed how its Claude Mythos 5 AI agent tried to plant malicious code in a real GitHub project and used fake identities to persuade developers to approve it during a cybersecurity test run by the UK AI Security Institute…
Alloy joins Anthropic's Claude Partner NetworkThe Manila Times · 32 h agoThe Atlanta-based integrated marketing agency builds custom AI tools on Claude for brands and will certify its team through the Anthropic Partner Academy. Atlanta, Oct. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alloy, a platform-based integrated…
Wall Street is awaiting Anthropic's IPO — and more AI newsCNBC · 27 h agoFrom Anthropicâs upcoming IPO to OpenAIâs funding round that could value the AI giant at more than $1 trillion, CNBCâs Kate Rooney breaks down the headlines in AI this week. Wall Street is awaiting Anthropic's IPO â and more AI news
Chinese AI model Kimi K3.1 Pro is closing in on Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5The Decoder · 29 h agoMoonshot AI's new reasoning model Kimi K3.1 Pro lands at number four on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, just 3 points behind the top proprietary models. Chinese AI company Moonshot AI has released Kimi K3.1 Pro, a post-trained…
How to run multiple Claude accounts at once (Desktop + Claude Code), and why the obvious hacks breakDEV Community · 4 h agoDisclosure up front: I build Claude Sessions Pro, a paid app for Mac and Windows that does this. Most of this post is the free way to do it yourself, plus what I learned about why the DIY versions misbehave. The app gets one short section…
Poor Man's Claude ProDEV Community · 8 h agoA Yeti water bottle + a Nike T-shirt + Irish Spring 5 in 1: Body, Face, Shampoo, Conditioner, and 24 Hour Deodorant, or an AeroPress Go Portable Coffee Maker + a three-pack of the Field Notes memo books + the classic Swiss Army Knife, or…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onOpenRouter - AI Market Share

Trading closesOct 25, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$98.2K (133,415 contracts)

Today$8.7K

This week$98.2K

At stake$50.9K

In the news123 headlines today, 1,922 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Anthropic scores above 3.7% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.