Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
11%chance▲ 3
Install
Will Obamacare be repealed? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
The odds
14%chance▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 16% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | ▼ 2 | 11¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 9.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Obamacare
Search ›-
Trump Administration Moves to Stop Obamacare Subsidies Until Applicants Prove EligibilityPresident Donald Trump’s administration is moving to close one of Obamacare’s most obvious loopholes: handing out taxpayer-funded subsidies before the government has verified that an applicant actually qualifies for them. The Centers for… -
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith Calls To Strip Abortion Services From Obamacare PlansAs federal lawmakers continue to target insurance coverage for reproductive care, the divide between political rhetoric and patient reality grows wider. A September 2026 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report identified 1,719… -
As Rivals Retreat, Oscar Health Plans To Expand Obamacare For 2027Oscar Health plans to expand its individual health insurance coverage offerings into one new state and 140 new counties next year even as rivals exit the market. Oscar, which is one of the largest providers of individual health insurance… -
Trump Just Promised $500 Obamacare Refunds to Nearly 1 Million Americans - Do You Qualify?Nearly 1 million Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrollees are receiving an unexpected $500 refund from the federal government. The White House recently announced the payments, and the Treasury Department began sending checks Sept. 30. For… - The White House says nearly a million people in 30 states who paid the full price for Obamacare coverage are getting $500 refund checks beginning this monthNearly 1 million people who bought Obamacare coverage without any premium help are due $500 each, and the first checks are scheduled to start going out this month. The White House announced the refunds in a September fact sheet, and the…
-
Obamacare Tax Credits Face New Rules: Who Could Be AffectedOct 15, 2026 at 01:41 PM EDT Tax credits introduced under Obamacare to help low-income Americans afford healthcare face possible new restrictions to prevent fraud. The Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have… -
Trump's $500 Obamacare refund check won’t change woman's mind before midtermsis your Sarpy County neighborhood reporter. He's passionate about issues like safety, local development, the economy, and uplifting stories about our neighbors. BENNINGTON, Neb. (KMTV) — A letter from President Donald Trump arrived for one… -
RFK Jr., Oz Sued Over Obamacare Insurance Broker MoratoriumBloomberg Law News An organization representing more than 100,000 insurance agents and brokers sued the Trump administration over a rule blocking new registrations for Affordable Care Act exchange enrollments in the name of fighting fraud… -
A $500 Obamacare refund could be headed to Wyoming residents. Here's who gets paidWyoming residents could be eligible for $500 refunds tied to fees charged through the federal health insurance marketplace, but only those who meet specific coverage and income assistance requirements qualify. Wyoming’s health insurance… -
Some Americans kicked off Obamacare health plans weren’t actually fraudulently enrolled: ReportGet my Daily BS twice-a-day news stack directly to your email. Some Americans recently removed from Obamacare health plans amid the Trump administration’s fraud crackdown were not fraudulently enrolled, KFF Health News reported Thursday… -
RFK Jr Defends Cutting 189,000 Obamacare Subsidies Saying Some 'Don't Even Know' They're EnrolledHealth Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has defended halting federal subsidies for about 189,000 Affordable Care Act enrollees, saying many of them do not realise they are covered twice. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)…
Related markets
All congress ›Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
11%Thom Tillis
- Thom Tillis11%▼ 1
- Kirsten Gillibrand9%▼ 1
- Andy Kim8%
12 more
- Jacky Rosen7%
- John Fetterman7%
- Alex Padilla7%
- Raphael Warnock7%▼ 1
- Catherine Cortez Masto7%
- Mike Lee6%
- Mark Warner6%
- Josh Hawley6%
- Lisa Blunt Rochester5%
- Rand Paul5%▼ 2
- Jerry Moran5%
- Ruben Gallego3%▼ 1
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
239.7median
206254
Median 239.7Middle half 230.2 – 248
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.44%median
-100%100%
Median 9.44%Middle half 7.06% – 11.53%
Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed? (Before Jan 1, 2030)
28%Before Jan 1, 2030
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
- Before Jan 1, 202813%
- Before Jan 1, 202914%
1 more
- Before Jan 1, 203028%
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell? (Through Nov 2027)
96%On Nov 16, 2026
- On Nov 16, 202696%▼ 3
- On Nov 22, 202770%
- On Mar 15, 202768%
1 more
- On Dec 14, 202658%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions