How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
7%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
Install
How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
The odds
48%4.55% or below
5Y Yield now 4.608 −1.73% 4.53%4.7%
Above today's price 45%
How the odds have moved
4.55% or below: 72% on Nov 2, 48% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 5, 11 AM ET4.55% or below: 61% → 48%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.55% or below | 48% | ▼ 24 | 30¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 431 |
| 4.58% or below | 48% | 21¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 1.00 | |
| 4.59% or below | 48% | 18¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 2.00 | |
| 4.63% or below | 35% | 3¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 2.00 | |
| 4.64% or below | 34% | 3¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 2.00 | |
| 4.66% or below | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| 4.67% or below | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | |||
| 4.68% or below | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 4.00 | |
| ✓ 4.69% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.7% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.71% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.72% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.73% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.74% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.75% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.76% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.77% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.78% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.79% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.8% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.81% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.82% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.83% or below | — | |||||
| ✓ 4.84% or below | 24% | ▲ 23 | $4.17 | 306 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
Search ›- 10-year Treasury yield is little changed as traders look ahead to jobs dataThe 10-year Treasury note yield was little changed Thursday as investors looked ahead to the October jobs report due Friday, and assessed the economic implications of the midterm election results. The benchmark yield was more than 1 basis…
- Gold hits a two-week high as dollar, Treasury yields ease after U.S. midterm electionsGold prices climbed nearly 2% to a two-week high on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields in the wake of a Democratic midterm election wave. Spot gold rose 1.9% to $4,134.83 per ounce by 0316 GMT…
- Treasury Partners' Richard Saperstein on markets, AI, trimming equitiesCNBC Treasury Partners' Richard Saperstein on markets, AI, trimming equities
- Democratic gains could pressure AI data center growth; healthcare, Treasuries could benefit: AnalystCNBC Democratic gains could pressure AI data center growth; healthcare, Treasuries could benefit: Analyst
- Treasury yields fall as investors crowd into bonds for safety amid election stock sell-offTreasury yields fell as investors sought shelter from a sell-off in equity futures sparked by potential big victories from Democrats in the U.S. midterm elections. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield dropped nearly 5 basis points to…
- Dollar falls while gold and US Treasury bonds rally as markets react to Democrats’ midterm election victory – business liveDemocrats’ capture of Congress raise expectations of tougher regulation of AI sector; US stock futures turn positive, reversing earlier declines Sterling has hit a seven-week high against the dollar, which weakened across the board…
- Treasury yields rise as investors weigh midterm vote, jobs data and Iran tensionsTreasury yields edged higher Tuesday as voting began in the U.S. midterm elections, while investors parse a busy week of economic data and renewed Middle East tensions that pushed oil prices higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield — the…
- Bitcoin Firm Strive Climbs Up the Treasury Ranks With Another Big BuyStrive, the Dallas-based company co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, now holds 43,124 Bitcoin after buying 124 BTC more last week. That stash is now worth roughly $3.3 billion, and good for about 0.2% of the 21 million coins that will ever…
- Treasury yields are mixed as oil prices tumble ahead of the midtermsU.S. Treasury yields were mixed early Monday as investors gear up for another busy week of economic data and corporate earnings, as well as the midterm elections. The 10-year Treasury was down by 2 basis points at 4.906%. The 30-year…
- Treasury Revamps Debt-Sale Guidance, Holds Auctions SteadyPublished on 11/04/2026 at 01:39 pm EST This is His Defeat November 04, 2026 at 09:20 am EST The old economy fights back Is French Debt Still Sustainable? Lagarde Heads for the Exit, Tech Loses Its Footing
- The real Treasury’s single account shift testThe National Treasury building in Nairobi. Hardly a public statement by President William Ruto or Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi ends without a boast that Kenya has, for the first time, implemented a Treasury Single Account (TSA)…
- Treasury Announces Dates for e-Citizen System MaintenanceThe National Treasury has announced two scheduled maintenance exercises for the e-Citizen platform in November. In a notice on Thursday, November 5, the Treasury said the maintenance would facilitate system upgrades, improve performance…
Related markets
All rates & bonds ›Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
2.72%median
1.8%3.2%
Median 2.72%Middle half 2.54% – 2.9%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
23%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
47%Below 3.90%
3.8%4.8%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
23%5.10%
4.95%5.4%
How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
5.15%median
5.07%5.26%
Median 5.15%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions