Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Polymarket Economy › Rates & bonds Closes Jan 31, 2027 · $471 today · $41K traded · $4.8K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

3.03%median

1.8%3.2%

Median 3.03%Middle half 2.84% – 3.12%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
<2.0%	1%		1¢	1¢		$1.4K
2.0-2.2%	2%		1¢	3¢	$37.04	$1.7K
2.2-2.4%	5%		2¢	8¢	$13.33	$1.7K
2.4-2.6%	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.71	$4.6K
2.6-2.8%	9%	▼ 2	9¢	10¢	$10.20	$2.8K
2.8-3.0%	20%	▼ 4	19¢	20¢	$4.95	$10K
3.0%+	59%	▲ 5	58¢	59¢	$1.71	$18.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Japan Y Bond Yield

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Related markets

All rates & bonds ›

Economy › Rates & bonds

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?

5.15%median

4.93%5.25%

Median 5.15%Middle half 5.12% – 5.18%

Economy › Rates & bonds

30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

52%7.75% or above

1.74%8.24%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.73%median

5.6%6.1%

Median 5.73%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

43%5.4%

5.3%6.3%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

5%Below 1.0%

0%4.8%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.16%median

4.95%5.4%

Median 5.16%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$41K

Today$471

This week$41K

At stake$4.8K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026. The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japane

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.