How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

Kalshi Economy › Rates & bonds Closes Nov 30 · $76 today · $76 traded · $76 at stake · prices read 8 h ago

The odds

5.19%median
30Y Yield now 5.250 −1.11%
5.07%5.38%
Median 5.19%Middle half 5.09% – 5.27%Above today's price 31%

How the odds have moved

Median: 5.2% on Nov 2, 5.19% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
5.07% or below 76% 71¢ 81¢ $1.23 100
5.08% or below 74% 69¢ 79¢ $1.27
5.09% or below 72% 67¢ 77¢ $1.30
5.1% or below 70% 65¢ 75¢ $1.33
5.11% or below 68% 63¢ 73¢ $1.37
5.12% or below 66% 61¢ 71¢ $1.41
5.13% or below 64% 59¢ 69¢ $1.45
5.14% or below 61% ▼ 1 56¢ 66¢ $1.52
5.15% or below 59% 54¢ 64¢ $1.56
5.16% or below 57% 52¢ 62¢ $1.61
5.17% or below 54% 49¢ 59¢ $1.69
5.18% or below 51% ▼ 1 46¢ 55¢ $1.82
5.19% or below 47% ▼ 1 43¢ 51¢ $1.96
5.2% or below 45% ▼ 2 41¢ 48¢ $2.08
5.21% or below 42% ▼ 2 38¢ 45¢ $2.22
5.22% or below 39% ▼ 1 35¢ 42¢ $2.38
5.23% or below 35% ▼ 2 31¢ 38¢ $2.63
5.24% or below 31% ▼ 2 28¢ 34¢ $2.94
5.25% or below 28% ▼ 3 25¢ 30¢ $3.33
5.26% or below 24% ▼ 3 22¢ 26¢ $3.85
5.27% or below 20% ▼ 4 18¢ 22¢ $4.55
5.28% or below 17% ▼ 4 15¢ 18¢ $5.56
5.29% or below 13% ▼ 4 12¢ 14¢ $7.14
5.3% or below 10% ▼ 5 9¢ 10¢ $10.00
5.31% or below 7% ▼ 4 6¢ 8¢ $12.50
5.32% or below 5% ▼ 4 4¢ 6¢ $16.67
5.33% or below 4% ▼ 4 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.00
5.34% or below 2% ▼ 3 4¢ $25.00
5.35% or below 2% ▼ 3 3¢ $33.33
5.36% or below 1% ▼ 3 2¢ $50.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Treasury

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  • Treasury yields are mixed as oil prices tumble ahead of the midtermsCNBC · 5 h agoU.S. Treasury yields were mixed early Monday as investors gear up for another busy week of economic data and corporate earnings, as well as the midterm elections. The 10-year Treasury was down by 2 basis points at 4.906%. The 30-year…
  • Treasury yields fall as investors await more economic dataCNBC · 3 days agoU.S. Treasury yields declined on Friday as investors weighed a flurry of economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. The 10-year Treasury, which is used as a benchmark for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card…
  • Clients using cash and treasuries amid selloff, says Morgan Stanley's Kathleen EntwistleCNBC · 3 days agoKathleen Entwistle, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management private wealth advisor, joins 'Fast Money' to talk how to position portfolios around a volatile market. Clients using cash and treasuries amid selloff, says Morgan Stanley's…
  • Treasury accepts role in staff member's deathBBC News · 3 days agoHM Treasury says it accepts a coroner's concerns after Chloe Moffat, the PA to one of its directors, took her own life The Treasury has accepted it contributed to the death of a personal assistant and said "immediate steps" have been taken…
  • Crypto Treasury Management News AnalysisOneSafe.io · 12 h agoIf Ripple’s executives are right about a five-year horizon for XRP as the institutional gold standard for crypto rails, what should a startup or DAO actually change about its crypto treasury management today? The answer, drawn from the…
  • Vanguard Total Treasury ETF declares $0.2629 dividendSeeking Alpha · 5 h agoVanguard Total Treasury ETF declares a $0.2629 monthly dividend with a 4.28% forward yield. - Vanguard Total Treasury ETF (VTG) declares $0.2629/share monthly dividend. - Payable Nov. 4; for shareholders of record Nov. 2; ex-div Nov. 2.
  • Treasury flags $8B in suspicious foreign-directed transfers through US money services firmsFox News · 3 days agoSecretary Bessent, FBI Director Patel hold a news conference in Minnesota to announce the administration’s latest efforts in its war on fraud. The Trump administration uncovered what it says is more than $8 billion in potentially…
  • USDC Treasury burns 100 million USDC on SolanaCrypto Briefing · 3 h agoCircle's treasury removed roughly $100.15 million in stablecoins from circulation in another routine supply adjustment The USDC Treasury burned 100 million USDC on November 2, 2026, according to blockchain tracker Whale Alert. The tokens…
  • Japan Post Holdings Announces Treasury Stock AcquisitionThe Globe and Mail · 3 h agoAn update from JAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co ( (JP:6178) ) is now available. Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of 11,646,800 shares of its treasury stock for approximately 17.7 billion yen, as part of a larger repurchase…
  • Bhutan's Bitcoin Move Tests Crypto Treasury Managementonesafe.io · 12 h agoBefore this, public-sector Bitcoin holdings were almost entirely passive — self-custodied cold wallets. Bhutan’s decision signals that even sovereign treasurers see a cost to idle capital and accept structured delegation with proper…
  • Treasury Proposes Expansion of the Outbound Investment ProgramThe National Law Review · 18 h agoThe proposed regulations in the NPRM expand Treasury’s jurisdiction in several key ways. To Whom does the Outbound NPRM apply? In addition, Treasury would broaden the “principal place of business” concept to include where an entity’s main…
  • Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF declares $0.1889 dividendSeeking Alpha · 5 h agoVanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF declares a $0.1889 monthly dividend with a 3.91% forward yield. - Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) declares $0.1889/share monthly dividend. - Payable Nov. 4; for shareholders of record Nov. 2; ex-div…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions