NY-17 House Election Winner
62%Cait Conley (D)
- Cait Conley (D)62%▲ 1
- Mike Lawler (R)38%
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NY-17 House winner? (2026)
The odds
60%Cait Conley
- Cait Conley60%▼ 1
- Mike Lawler40%▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Cait Conley: 60% on Oct 20, 60% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley | 60% | ▼ 1 | 60¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 125.5K |
| Mike Lawler | 40% | ▲ 2 | 40¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 293.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- NY-17 House winner? (2026)Mike Lawler (R)Kalshi 40%Polymarket 38%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: NY- House, Cait Conley, Mike Lawler
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Republican incumbent Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley vie for NY-17 seat in northern suburbsUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 5:51 PM EDT / CBS New York Republican incumbent Mike Lawler and challenger Cait Conley are campaigning for the hotly contested seat in New York's 17th Congressional District. The district includes all of… -
Centrist champion for small business Mike Lawler is a far better vote than carpetbagging challenger Cait ConleyNo matter which party winds up controlling the House, New York and the Hudson Valley’s 17th Congressional District will be far better off re-electing Rep. Mike Lawler over carpetbagging challenger Cait Conley. He’s a hard-nosed centrist… -
Elon Musk opens wallet to aid NY Rep. Mike Lawler’s tough re-election bidThe world’s richest man is launching his support behind Republican New York Rep. Mike Lawler. Elon Musk’s self-financed America Super PAC dumped $600,000 to back Lawler in recent days as the two-term Hudson Valley congressman faces a tough… -
Rep. Mike Lawler reacts to federal probe into Rep. Ilhan OmarRep. Mike Lawler, Republican from New York, reacts to reports of a federal probe into Rep. Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures and alleged name scrutiny. Lawler also shares his outlook on the upcoming midterm elections. Rep. Mike Lawler… -
For New York Congressional District 17, Cait Conley vs Mike LawlerCait Conley (Democrat/Working Families Party) of New Castle seeks to unseat incumbent Mike Lawler as U.S. Representative for New York Congressional District 17. Mike Lawler (Republican/Conservative) of Pearl River is seeking his third… -
WMCHealth Joins U.S. Representatives Mike Lawler and Josh Gottheimer to Announce New Federal Legislation to Advance Organ DonationWestchester Medical Center Health Network (WMCHealth) hosted U.S. Representatives Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) for a bipartisan announcement to introduce new federal legislation aimed at helping expand organ donation… -
Cait Conley Joined by NYS AFL-CIO and Leading Labor Unions for Rally and Canvass LaunchRiver Journal Online “Growing up in the Hudson Valley, the daughter of a postal worker and a construction worker, I learned the values of hard work and service to community at a young age — values I’ve carried with me throughout my… -
Cait Conley on Policy, Politics and Personal DecisionsCait Conley discusses foreign policy, affordability, surveillance, congressional reform and her career transition in a 30-minute interview. News Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and… -
NEW AD: Radical Democrat Cait Conley Exposed as Kathy Hochul PuppetNational Republican Congressional Committee Text VICTORY to 21818 to help DEFEND our conservative majority! NEW AD: Radical Democrat Cait Conley Exposed as Kathy Hochul Puppet WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Republican Congressional… -
‘Just get in and stir sh-t up’ — Lawler as chaos agent04/13/2026 05:31 PM EDT The text message that was apparently sent by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler to Democrats included this image. | Obtained by POLITICO DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 13 OPERATIVES GONNA OPERATE: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler… -
Elon Musk spends $500K on New York GOP congressman's re-election bidRep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., discusses Elon Musk's $500,000 contribution to his re-election effort and the influence of socialist candidates on ‘Hannity.’ Elon Musk spends $500K on New York GOP congressman's re-election bid Rep. Mike Lawler… -
NY House candidate Brad Lander briefly detained by Israeli military in West BankWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.