US tariff revenue for 2026
$284.06median
$60$350
Median $284.06
Install
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
The odds
Nov 30, 2027even chance by
- October 314%▼ 2
- November 3052%▲ 14
- December 3169%▲ 2
How the odds have moved
October 31: 5% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $71.43 | $52.3K | |
| September 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $73.8K | ||
| October 31 | 4% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 4¢ | $23.26 | $139K |
| November 30 | 52% | ▲ 14 | 34¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | $62 |
| December 31 | 69% | ▲ 2 | 57¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | $43.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff, US-Canada
Search ›-
Trump Accused of Unlawfully Invoking 1930s Law for Canada TariffsOct 21, 2026 at 05:14 AM EDT A New Jersey food importer has accused President Donald Trump of unlawfully invoking a rarely used 1930s trade law to impose 50 percent tariffs on certain Canadian goods. Gellert Global Group filed a lawsuit on… -
‘Tariff Man’ finally found tariffs he doesn’t likePresident Donald Trump loves tariffs so much that during his first term, he nicknamed himself “Tariff Man.” Trump tripled down on tariffs during his second term, lobbing them on friends and enemies alike, in an attempt to revive American… -
US-Canada trade war: How Canada’s retaliatory tariffs affect e-commerceThe U.S.-Canada trade relationship has entered a tense phase, with new tariffs implemented by both sides in late August and early September. This latest exchange adds costs to goods flowing in both directions, creating uncertainty across… -
DSV: Customs activity at record high as tariffs and geopolitics biteCNBC DSV: Customs activity at record high as tariffs and geopolitics bite -
US food importer sues Trump administration over 50% tariffs on Canadian goodsKaran Ramchandani, managing director for capital ,markets at Post Oak Group, breaks down how U.S.-Canada tariffs and USMCA uncertainty disrupt auto, steel, and lumber sectors, freeze long-term capital and push costs to consumers and small… -
Google Ads Expands Financial Services Verification To US & CanadaGoogle has announced it is expanding its Google Ads Financial Services Verification requirements to the United States and Canada. Google is working with the American Bankers Association and Canadian Bankers Association for this. Google… -
Trump sued over 50% tariffs on Canada in latest trade challengeA new lawsuit filed Tuesday challenges President Donald Trump's invocation of a Depression-era law to impose 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods. Trump in July used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to slap those steep tariffs on… -
Voters wanted Trump I’s economy. They got tariff chaosWashington Examiner In October 2018, right before the midterm elections of President Donald Trump’s first term, the jobless rate in the United States held at 3.7%, the lowest level since 1969. The number of available job openings that… -
‘Never been more optimistic’: Feds announce $254M upgrades to NB port amid US.-.Canada trade war | Watch News Videos Online‘Never been more optimistic’: Feds announce $254M upgrades to NB port amid US.-.Canada trade war Global News Go Back Close Local Add Global News to Home Screen Close ‘Never been more optimistic’: Feds announce $254M upgrades to NB port… -
What Do Donald Trump’s Tariffs Mean For Michigan? Plus, The Israeli ElectionIn the decades following the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the U.S. and Canada built strong economic ties across their border. That robust partnership — which accounts for billions of dollars of goods — made Canada a… -
Russia waiver leaves tariff leverage intactDelivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy. You will now start receiving email updates 10/19/2026 10:00 AM EDT With help from Ari Hawkins President Donald Trump’s decision… -
The U.S. badly needs new tariff lawsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Right now, the legal…
Related markets
All trade & tariffs ›Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
12%chance▼ 1
US trade deficit for 2026?
180.2median
35.1200
Median 180.2Middle half 170.3 – 190.1
50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect? (Before Jan 2, 2027)
24%chance
US trade deficit for 2032
50%Above $1.2 trillion
$400$1,300
US trade deficit for 2031
$1,110median
$400$1,300
Median $1,110
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions