Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?

Polymarket Economy › Trade & tariffs Closes Dec 31 · $169 today · $31.1K traded · $6.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

13%chance▲ 3

How the odds have moved

Yes: 24% on Oct 20, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	13%	▲ 3	11¢	15¢	$6.67	$31.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Apple, CXMT

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Apple revives the original iPod as an Apple Music easter eggThe Verge · 2 days agoIf you've been feeling nostalgic for your old iPod, you can head over to Apple Music's 404 page to play music on a virtual recreation of the first-generation iPod. The hidden iPod was spotted by users on social media on Friday. It's…
Apple iPhone Duo hits store shelvesCNBC · 2 days agoCNBCâs MacKenzie Sigalos reports on the launch of Appleâs iPhone Duo from the companyâs flagship store in New York City. iPhone Duo release is first major test of Appleâs push under new CEO
Customers wait in overnight lines for Apple's iPhone DuoFox News · 47 h agoVideo shows eager shoppers gathering outside Apple stores across the world, hours before the new iPhone Duo hit the shelves. Customers wait in overnight lines for Apple's iPhone Duo Video shows eager shoppers gathering outside Apple stores…
Apple's new iPhone Duo hits store shelvesCNBC · 2 days agoCNBCâs MacKenzie Sigalos reports on the queues outside Apple's flagship New York City for the launch of the new iPhone Duo. Apple's new iPhone Duo hits store shelves
Apple stock rises as iPhone Duo hits store shelvesCNBC · 2 days agoCNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos reports outside Apple’s flagship New York City for the launch of the new iPhone Duo. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and ... Apple stock rises as iPhone Duo hits…
Apple's first-ever foldable iPhone hits storesCBS News · 47 h agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Apple's…
Scalpers offer Apple iPhone Duo buyers hundreds extra outside Beijing launchCNBC · 2 days agoThe iPhone Duo has an eye-popping price tag, but initial interest in Apple’s first foldable phone in China appears solid. On the day of the global launch on Friday, scalpers like Alex Wang stood outside the flagship store in Beijing’s…
What to expect from Apple’s ‘Pro and tell’ eventThe Verge · 34 h agoApple’s long-rumored touchscreen MacBook Pro, an OLED iPad Mini, and more. Beyond that? There could be an OLED update for the iPad Mini, plus M6 updates across other devices, following the M6 debut with the Mac Mini in August. A MacBook…
The Duo makes its Apple Store debut.The Verge · 3 days agoApple’s foldable is available for purchase and demos at stores worldwide today, and the company is already sharing images of the crowds and customers celebrating the launch at Apple Jing’an, Shanghai. You can check out our iPhone Duo…
Apple’s first foldable iPhone hits stores nationwideCBS News · 3 days agoWBZ This Morning 6am CBS News Chicago 5am CBS News Detroit 6am CBS News Miami 6am CBS News Philadelphia 6am KDKA-TV Morning News 6am CBS News Texas 5am
David Zayas Joins Apple TV's Alex Cary Thriller SeriesDeadline · 2 days agoDavid Zayas is set to star opposite Dakota Fanning in Apple TV's as-yet-untitled Alex Cary thriller. Services to share this page. EXCLUSIVE: David Zayas (Dexter, The Bear) is set to star opposite Dakota Fanning in Apple TV‘s…
iPhone Duo launch lifts Apple, leapfrogging Nvidia to become the world's most valuable companyCNBC · 2 days agoJeff Kilburg of KKM Financial breaks down what the launch of the iPhone Duo means for Apple ahead of the company's Q4 earnings on Nov. 2. iPhone Duo launch lifts Apple, leapfrogging Nvidia to become the world's most valuable company

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$31.1K

Today$169

This week$2.1K

At stake$6.3K

In the news122 headlines today, 2,389 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple. This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions