Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4%chance
Install
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | $441K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
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China accused of intimidation campaign to isolate Taiwan politicianTaipei [Taiwan], October 27 (ANI): China is facing allegations of attempting to politically isolate Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen by pressuring celebrities, businesses and professional… -
African countries host photo exhibition marking Taiwan’s restoration to ChinaNAIROBI | Xinhua | A photo exhibition marking the 81st anniversary of Taiwan’s restoration to China opened in five African countries — Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Mozambique — from Oct. 23 to 25. The exhibition features four… -
Nausėda: Lithuania-China diplomatic ties should not hinge on Taiwan office nameLithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said restoring full diplomatic representation between Lithuania and China should not be directly linked to changing the name of Taiwan’s representative office in Vilnius, stressing that normalising… -
Taiwan rebuffs China's commemorations for post-World War Two 'restoration' of islandTAIPEI, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Taiwan's defence minister on Tuesday said China was waging "cognitive warfare" after Beijing marked the anniversary of Japan's handover of the island to Chinese rule with satellite images of Taipei and a military… -
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American And Chinese Aircraft Carriers Could Cross Paths As Tensions Rise Near TaiwanChina’s Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group is heading toward waters where an American supercarrier is conducting massive military exercises alongside allied warships. (ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP via Getty Images) The Chinese formation reached… -
CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: The 'cliff' beneath China's citiesHi, this is Anniek, writing to you from Singapore, with Evelyn, who reported from the Bund Summit in Shanghai last week. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what we are seeing and hearing from China… -
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland marketI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese… -
China balances diplomatic relations with Gulf statesChina depends on the region’s crude, including Iran’s, forcing Beijing into a delicate dance to protect its energy flows China, reluctant to pick a side in the Iran war, is reportedly being urged by its diplomats to protect relations with… -
China Versus Taiwan: 2 Educators Reflect on Learning, Critical Thinking, and Social ValuesTwo veteran educators from mainland China have drawn considerable attention online after recently sharing candid reflections on their visits to Taiwan. Their accounts contrasted the island’s open classroom discussions and everyday civic… -
Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Obama: "We Welcome China's Rise"January 20, 2011 / 9:58 AM EST / CBS News China's rapid growth is often painted as a threat to American interests. But President Obama said today that the country's economic progress benefits the United States and opens the door to greater… -
What's next for China after Xi Jinping?In this bonus episode we answer your questions about the next generation of Chinese leaders and how they might run the world superpower. Presenter Celia Hatton is joined by the BBC's China ... What's next for China after Xi Jinping? In…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions