Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
6%chance▼ 1
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $45M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
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Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to ChinaOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering… -
Typhoon Champi roars towards Taiwan, Japan and China bringing heavy rain and windTaiwan is bracing for powerful Typhoon Champi, which is set to make landfall on Friday with gusts of up to 173 kph (107mph) and a 320km radius that will envelope the entire island Taiwanese authorities have urged people to stay away from… -
Massive waves thrash Taiwan as super typhoon Champi slams islandWild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. Wild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. -
Russia Trains China’s Army for Taiwan While Beijing Fuels Moscow’s WarRussia is training Chinese soldiers in drone warfare and urban combat and has agreed to equip and train a battalion of Chinese paratroopers, while China supplies 90 percent of the sanctioned technology entering Russia. “For decades, Russia… -
Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around IslandChina is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, with Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels operating in waters around the island every day. What would you like to watch today? Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around Island What Pollsters… -
Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was… -
China accused of pressuring families of Taiwan politicians ahead of key electionTaipei [Taiwan], October 24 (ANI): China is allegedly stepping up efforts to intimidate relatives of Taiwanese politicians it considers supporters of independence, raising concerns about possible interference in Taiwan’s upcoming… - October 25, 1945: China takes control of TaiwanOct 25, 2026 02:00 107 The ceremony in which Japan hands over control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands is held in Taipei City Hall on October 25, 1945. Japanese Governor-General Rikichi Ando signs the surrender documents, and General Chen…
- Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
- China’s sanctions on Taiwan allies project its power, but with limited effectChina’s sanctions against foreign officials over their ties with Taiwan help Beijing project power and warn other governments, even as their financial impact and success in curbing engagement remain limited, analysts told Radio Free Asia…
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Western luxury falters in ChinaWestern luxury brands have lost roughly $280 billion in value this year as Chinese consumers spend more on domestic products but less overall. Chinese producers are increasingly competing with Western challengers not only on price but on…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions