Elon Musk # tweets October 19 - October 21, 2026?
61.5median
16264
Median 61.5Middle half 49.2 – 78.8
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Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?
The odds
72.5median
16264
Median 72.5Middle half 54.0 – 92.7
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $362 | |
| 40-64 | 35% | 37¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | $328 | |
| 65-89 | 34% | 33¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | $782 | |
| 90-114 | 17% | 16¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | $2.5K | |
| 115-139 | 7% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.52 | $327 | |
| 140-164 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $58.82 | $288 | |
| 165-189 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $71.43 | $375 | |
| 190-214 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $85 | |
| 215-239 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $85 | |
| 240+ | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $185 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Elon Musk, Musk
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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1219
Median 75.3Middle half 64.2 – 91.6
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32.7median
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Median 32.7Middle half 26.3 – 40.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.