Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

Polymarket Mentions › Posts & tweets Closes tomorrow 12:00 PM ET · $476K today · $1.9M traded · $197K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

338.0median

300519

Median 338.0Middle half 329.0 – 351.0

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
<20	<1%			0¢		$2.2K
20-39	<1%			0¢		$1.8K
40-59	<1%			0¢		$715
60-79	<1%			0¢		$6.8K
80-99	<1%			0¢		$10.3K
100-119	<1%			0¢		$18.5K
120-139	<1%			0¢		$40.2K
140-159	<1%			0¢		$48K
160-179	<1%			0¢		$35.6K
180-199	<1%			0¢		$46.1K
200-219	<1%			0¢		$35.7K
220-239	<1%			0¢		$68.1K
240-259	<1%			0¢		$67.7K
260-279	<1%			0¢		$126K
280-299	<1%			0¢		$154K
300-319	<1%			0¢		$244K
320-339	53%	▲ 40	50¢	52¢	$1.93	$16K
340-359	38%	▲ 5	37¢	38¢	$2.64	$98.3K
360-379	6%	▼ 29	6¢	6¢	$16.13	$1K
380-399	2%	▼ 14	2¢	2¢	$62.50	$87.8K
400-419	1%	▼ 3	1¢	1¢		$96.8K
420-439	<1%	▼ 2	0¢	0¢		$88.4K
440-459	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$86.6K
460-479	<1%			0¢		$67.4K
480-499	<1%			0¢		$78.2K
500+	<1%			0¢		$121K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Elon Musk, Musk

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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248.7median

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256.2median

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59.9median

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Median 59.9Middle half 48.4 – 77.6

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72.3median

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Median 72.3Middle half 53.7 – 93.2

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32.7median

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Median 32.7Middle half 26.2 – 40.7

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75.6median

1219

Median 75.6Middle half 64.3 – 91.5

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onx.com

Trading closesOct 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET

Traded$1.9M

Today$476K

This week$1.9M

At stake$197K

In the news293 headlines today, 2,381 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 13 12:00 PM ET to October 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at h

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.