Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
329.5median
1599
Median 329.5Middle half 324.7 – 334.3
Install
Khamenei # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
The last odds before it closed
3.01median
164
Median 3.01Middle half 2.01 – 4.02
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.08 on Oct 20, 3.01 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $6K | |
| 5-9 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $1.9K | ||
| 10-14 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2.1K | ||
| 15-19 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.7K | |||
| 20-24 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.5K | |||
| 25-29 | <1% | 0¢ | $2.2K | |||
| 30-34 | <1% | 0¢ | $444 | |||
| 35-39 | <1% | 0¢ | $188 | |||
| 40-44 | <1% | 0¢ | $323 | |||
| 45-49 | <1% | 0¢ | $188 | |||
| 50-54 | <1% | 0¢ | $195 | |||
| 55-59 | <1% | 0¢ | $195 | |||
| 60+ | <1% | 0¢ | $195 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Khamenei
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Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for Khamenei’s dayslong funeralGen. Ahmad Vahidi attended a meeting about the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and sat alongside the late supreme leader's casket, Iranian state media photos showed. Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for… -
Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's strategy on IranNational security policy analyst Andrew Harding joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss massive protests sweeping across Europe and Trump weighing his next steps regarding the Iran deal. Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's… -
A Netanyahu defeat would make Iran war harder for the U.S.Dania Arayssi, Senior Analyst at New Lines Institute explains how a Netanyahu election loss could significantly complicate a U.S. intervention in Iran, as Washington relies heavily on Israeli intelligence and partnership to avoid entering… -
US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump choosesUS forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. “It will be a big effort,” one… -
Iran reports meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei amid questions over his whereaboutsIran's judiciary reports a meeting between its chief and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since March. Iran reports meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei amid questions over his whereabouts -
Forty Iranian sailors rescued off Sri Lanka coast after medical emergenciesSri Lanka's foreign ministry says it has coordinated efforts to treat and repatriate 40 Iranian sailors suffering from unspecified medical emergencies in international waters off the island's southeastern coast. Ministry spokesperson… -
New threats could push US and Iran toward warThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President… -
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns… -
Delegations meet in Iran with Middle East on edge over potential for renewed fightingThe talks come as many in Iran are girding themselves for the possible return to a return to all-out war, as Israeli and American leaders have been sharpening their threats ahead of pending elections in both countries, while Iranian… -
Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane… -
Iran says it's prepared to go back to war amid threat from the U.S. and Israel?Iran is preparing for a potential attack from the U.S. and Israel after the midterms. Iran says it's prepared to go back to war amid threat from the U.S. and Israel ?Iran is preparing for a potential attack from the U.S. and Israel after… -
US intel warns Iran is planning lethal plots against AmericansLexington Institute vice president Rebecca Grant and national security strategist Jake Sotiriadis join ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss warnings that Iran is in advanced stages of planning lethal plots against Americans. US intel warns Iran is…
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All posts & tweets ›Elon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
77.0median
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Median 77.0Middle half 71.0 – 83.1
Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?
151.0median
1219
Median 151.0Middle half 145.5 – 156.6
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69.5median
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Median 69.5Middle half 64.7 – 74.3
Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?
1,019median
8401,039
Median 1,019Middle half 1,010 – 1,029
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29.6median
1219
Median 29.6Middle half 24.8 – 34.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions