Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket Culture Closes Dec 31 · $2 today · $6.5K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

3%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	3%		3¢	4¢	$28.57	$6.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Amelia Earhart

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In 1933, Amelia Earhart revolutionized women’s fashion by creating aviator-themed activewearUpworthy · 43 h agoAt a time when women’s activewear was extremely rare, her clothes featured parachute silk and airplane hardware. Amelia Earhart’s accomplishments in aviation made her a household name in the United States by 1928, when she became the first…
Hear Amelia Earhart's VOICE like never before: Scientists use AI to enhance a recording logged two years before the pilot's disappearanceDaily Mail · 3 days agoScientists have used AI to enhance a historical recording of Amelia Earhart, making her voice sound clearer than ever before. The clip, first broadcast in 1935, is a snippet from a speech the trailblazing pilot gave on radio about a…
Amelia Earhart investigation reaches devastating conclusion after team's search for planeUNILAD Tech · 4 days agoAmeila Earhart was making her second attempt to fly around the world when she disappeared Amelia Earhart went missing back in 1937 as the US aviation pioneer attempted to become the first woman to fly around the world. Earhart was making…
Researchers launch search for Amelia Earhart's planeFox News · 6 days agoFox News Researchers launch search for Amelia Earhart's plane 'It's Cool to Love America' founder Kyle Wisch discusses an expedition searching for Amelia Earhart's long-lost plane in the Pacific and more on 'Fox News @ Night.' Researchers…
Pacific News Minute: Amelia Earhart crash still a mystery after latest searchHawai'i Public Radio · 6 days agoA U.S. expedition traveled to a remote Pacific island hoping to solve the mystery of what happened to legendary aviator Amelia Earhart. The answer wasn't quite the one they were looking for. Earhart and her navigator Fred Noonan vanished…
Latest hunt for Amelia Earhart’s plane comes up empty: ‘The mystery continues’Chicago Tribune · 6 days agoSearch after search has failed to find the plane of Amelia Earhart, the pioneering pilot who disappeared over the Pacific Ocean in 1937. One recent expedition mistook rocks for the aircraft. Now, another has found trees. An American team…
The latest turn in the 89 years of looking for the singular Amelia EarhartNPR · 8 days agoWhat is it about Amelia Earhart? Nearly 90 years after she and her plane disappeared, we check in with her hometown. Picture it. It's 1937. UNIDENTIFIED NEWSCASTER: Amelia Earhart out to circle the Earth at the latitude of the Equator, and…
The quest to solve the mysterious fate of Amelia EarhartCBS News · 8 days agoA team of researchers went to Nikumaroro Island, a remote island in the Pacific Ocean, to search for Amelia Earhart's long-lost plane decades after she vanished. Here's a look at their expedition, the mysterious object that led them there…
Fox News Digital's News Quiz: October 23, 2026Fox News · 5 days agoFox News Channel offers its audiences in-depth news reporting, along with opinion and analysis encompassing the principles of free people, free markets and diversity of thought, as an alternative to the left-of-center offerings of the news…
Babe Ruth, FDR and a Kansas Democrat: The story behind a 94-year Senate droughtKMBC · 21 h agoThe last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, Babe Ruth was still playing for the New York Yankees, Franklin D. Roosevelt was headed to the White House and the Kansas City Chiefs didn't even exist. The year was 1932, and…
Purdue Expedition finds natural debris, not Amelia Earhart’s lost planeInkFreeNews.com · 7 days agoWEST LAFAYETTE – A Purdue-affiliated expedition searching a remote Pacific atoll for evidence of Amelia Earhart’s lost aircraft has ruled out one of the mystery’s more intriguing leads, determining that a satellite image anomaly was most…
Mysterious object found in South Pacific wasn't Amelia Earhart's plane, Purdue team saysWLKY · 7 days agoA Purdue University-backed expedition to a remote island in the South Pacific failed to find fresh clues in the search for Amelia Earhart's plane, researchers say. However, they also said found other items that could still eventually help…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6.5K

Today$2

This week$262

At stake$1.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is publicly confirmed that the “Taraia Object,” or any other object, is wreckage or a component of the Lockheed Electra 10E that disappeared with Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan on July 2, 1937, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolving this market, "confirmed" means an official public announcement by the research team, institution, or government body involved in the investigation or its authorized representative, definitively confirming the identity of the object as wreckage or a component of that specific aircraft, based on physical inspection, imaging, or re

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions