Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $5.1K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 36 min ago

The odds

8%chance▼ 3

How the odds have moved

Yes: 15% on Oct 20, 8% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	8%	▼ 3	6¢	9¢	$11.11	$5.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Canada

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Canada’s Trump Fixation FadesNational Review · 22 h agoReunion with Rome: An Orthodox Perspective Why Assisted Suicide Failed in Britain Could This Time Be Different on Ukraine? After trade talks between the U.S. and Canada collapsed in August, there were fears a new cold war would break out…
US to remove some Canadian tariffs ahead of electionssemafor.com · 22 h agoThe US announced plans to remove tariffs on certain Canadian products after an embattled Republican senator in Maine lobbied for the move as the White House looks to bolster its candidates ahead of Nov. 3. The US announced plans to remove…
Trump started a trade war with Canada. GOP candidates became casualties.The Washington Post · 35 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. High tariffs on…
The top 25 modern golf courses in Canada, rankedYahoo Sports · 40 h agoWelcome to the Golfweek's Best 2026 ranking of the top 25 modern golf courses in Canada. Golfweek for many years ranked Canadian courses, but during COVID there wasn't much movement on the lists of best modern and classic courses in the…
In Canada: Summer Walker, Bebe Rexha to Accept Awards at Billboard Canada Women in Music 2026Billboard · 3 days agoAlso this week: Drake finances a new album for a Canadian rapper and Tate McRae's Victoria's Secret performance draws criticism. Billboard Canada has announced some more major global names for Billboard Canada Women In Music, where Cardi B…
Royal Carribean cruise to the Bahamas went to Canada insteadNew York Post · 2 days agoThis was one confused cruise. More than 5,000 passengers expecting a week of fun in the sun in the Bahamas instead found themselves headed for chilly Canada after stormy weather forced their Royal Caribbean cruise to change course. The…
US ambassador softens accusations of Canadian interference in midtermsPOLITICO · 3 days agoIn an interview, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said the U.S. had not determined whether there had, in fact, been any interference by Canadian officials. Pete Hoekstra, then-candidate for U.S. ambassador to Canada, takes his seat for a Senate…
Canada inflict back-to-back losses on EnglandBBC Sport · 3 days agoBack-to-back losses for Red Roses against Canada Tries: Omokhuale, De Goede 3, Bauder Cons: De Goede 3 Tries: Feaunati, Cokayne, Sing Cons: Harrison, Sing Pens: Harrison England suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time in a decade…
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceNewsweek · 3 days agoOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief…
Thousands booked tropical Bahamas cruise and ended up in freezing Canada insteadFox News · 2 days agoHeritage Foundation Chief Economist EJ Antoni analyzes why cruise stocks, like Royal Caribbean, are rising. They discuss how cheaper fuel from potential Middle East energy flows boosts profitability. A cruise scheduled to sail to the sunny…
Trump rolls back some Canada tariffs as midterm election approachesThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles oneuropean-union.europa.eu

Trading closesDec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$5.1K

This week$143

At stake$1.1K

In the news240 headlines today, 4,599 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada has officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Canada will be considered to have officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state on the date that all required parties and EU member-states have signed and ratified an accession treaty or other legally binding instrument admitting Canada as a member state of the European Union. Membership subject to opt-outs, derogations, or transition periods on specific EU policies will qualify, provided Canada is admitted as a member state of the European Union un

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions