Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31 · $121K today · $99M traded · $668K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

79%Nicolás Maduro

Nicolás Maduro79%▼ 2
Delcy Rodríguez17%▲ 1
No Head of State2%▲ 1
Edmundo González1%
María Corina Machado<1%▼ 1
Marco Rubio<1%
Jorge Rodríguez<1%
Pete Hegseth<1%
Frank Donovan<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón<1%
Dinorah Figuera<1%
Donald Trump<1%

4 more

Vladimir Padrino López<1%
Evan Pettus<1%
Dan Caine<1%
Richard Grenell<1%

How the odds have moved

Nicolás Maduro: 73% on Oct 20, 79% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Nicolás Maduro	79%	▼ 2	78¢	79¢	$1.26	$3.8M
Delcy Rodríguez	17%	▲ 1	16¢	18¢	$5.56	$2.5M
No Head of State	2%	▲ 1	2¢	2¢	$55.56	$1.7M
Edmundo González	1%		1¢	1¢		$1.5M
María Corina Machado	<1%	▼ 1	0¢	0¢		$1.6M
Marco Rubio	<1%		0¢	0¢		$1.5M
Jorge Rodríguez	<1%		0¢	0¢		$1.3M
Pete Hegseth	<1%		0¢	0¢		$9.3M
Frank Donovan	<1%		0¢	0¢		$26M
Diosdado Cabello Rondón	<1%			0¢		$2.2M
Dinorah Figuera	<1%			0¢		$3.1M
Donald Trump	<1%			0¢		$1.2M
Vladimir Padrino López	<1%			0¢		$891K
Evan Pettus	<1%			0¢		$5.7M
Dan Caine	<1%			0¢		$4.2M
Richard Grenell	<1%			0¢		$32.8M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Nicolás Maduro

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María Corina Machado's offer of talks with Delcy Rodríguez draws mixed reactions among Venezuelans in South FloridaCBS News · 18 h agoOctober 26, 2026 / 7:46 PM EDT / CBS Miami Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said Monday that she is ready to meet with interim President Delcy Rodríguez, an offer that drew both skepticism and support among Venezuelan…
Delcy Rodriguez: Latest News and UpdatesSouth China Morning Post · 4 days agoThe latest news and top stories on Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president of Venezuela. Following the abduction of leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a US military operation on January 3, 2026, Rodriguez was sworn in as the country’s…
Machado Ready to Meet Delcy RodríguezThe Rio Times · 22 h agoVenezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado is ready to meet interim president Delcy Rodríguez, her party said on Monday, 26 October 2026. The offer comes a day after Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, returned after about…
Marco Rubio Sends Warning to Delcy Rodríguez and María Corina Machado After Opposition Leader's ReturnLatin Times · 27 h agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a two-sided message after María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela: Delcy Rodríguez's government must respect political freedoms, and the opposition is expected to support the negotiations…
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela from exile for first time since Maduro’s ousterNew York Post · 46 h agoNobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado reemerged from exile in Venezuela on Sunday for the first time since late last year, when she fled due to fears about her safety. Machado, who had been banned from running for…
Former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, wife face new charges over alleged torture104.5 WOKV · 2 days agoFederal prosecutors in New York on Thursday unsealed new charges against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro that accuse him of conspiring with his wife to torture individuals who were held in Venezuelan prisons. The new indictment…
Machado ya está en Venezuela. Su desafío ahora es presionar a Delcy Rodríguez sin incordiar a EE.UU.KRDO · 29 h agoAnálisis por Alfredo Meza, CNN en Español El regreso de Maria Corina Machado a Venezuela desafía el plan de transición diseñado por el Departamento de Estado, pone presión sobre los hombros de la presidenta encargada del país, Delcy…
Opposition leader María Machado returns from exile to a Venezuela reshaped by TrumpBBC News · 17 h agoDriving down roads lined with jubilant supporters from the western state of Lara to the capital Caracas, Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela could hardly have been more different to her exit ten months earlier. Colourful, loud, open…
Exiled Venezuelan opposition leader announces her returnthe Guardian · 2 days agoNobel laureate María Corina Machado’s return after almost a year in exile is unlikely to please interim president Delcy Rodríguez The Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has announced she has returned to Venezuela, almost a…
Crowds welcome Venezuela's María Machado after months in exileBBC News · 32 h agoVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has returned home after more than 10 months in exile. "I am here. With you," Machado wrote on X on Sunday. Her return came after several prior efforts to re-enter the country came to no…
Machado finally made it back to Venezuela. Her challenge now is to pressure Rodríguez without upsetting the USCNN · 23 h agoLee este análisis en español Maria Corina Machado’s return to Venezuela not only challenges Washington’s vision for the country’s transition, it also puts pressure on acting President Delcy Rodríguez by heightening tensions within her…
Opposition leader Machado returns to Venezuela from exileCNN · 2 days agoAfter more than 10 months in exile, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado has returned home to a political landscape that has been reshaped by her ally the United States without her involvement. “I am here…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$99M

Today$121K

This week$382K

At stake$668K

In the news54 headlines today, 316 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one off

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions