Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
75%3-6 hours
- 3-6 hours75%▼ 10
- 6-12 hours22%▲ 8
- 12+ hours2%▲ 2
Install
Tesla Optimus released this year? (Before 2027)
The odds
9%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 6% on Oct 20, 9% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 10 PM ET25% → 10%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 443.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tesla Optimus
Search ›- Tesla's Optimus robot with Grok shown on video. We're not impressed.Tesla's Optimus robot now comes with xAI's AI assistant Grok, but judging from a recent video shared on X, it's not very close to fulfilling CEO Elon Musk's dream and becoming Tesla's biggest product ever. The video, shared by Salesforce…
- What Musk Said About the Tesla Optimus Delivery DateThat is a sober reset for a product Tesla has pitched as a pillar of its future. Our earlier look at Tesla’s Optimus target of 20,000 robots a week by 2027 framed the ambition. This week’s remarks add the caveats: the Tesla Optimus…
- Elon Musk says Tesla's Optimus robot needs to learn like a toddlerTesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk reminded investors this past summer that making thumbs for the Optimus humanoid robot would be no easy task. Now he's out with a fresh reminder that getting Optimus to behave like a human out in the wild is also…
- Elon Musk says training Tesla's Optimus robot is like raising a toddlerTesla is sending its Optimus humanoid robot back to school. Speaking on the company's earnings call on Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk compared training the EV maker's humanoid robot to raising a toddler. Musk said that while Tesla's autonomous…
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Tesla Optimus V3: What the Leaked Images Actually Tell UsImages believed to show Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot have surfaced — not from a stage reveal or press release, but embedded inside Tesla's own smartphone app. Here's what we know, what the design changes signal, and how close this… -
Tesla cuts capex forecast to about $20 BillionTesla faces intense market scrutiny as Nancy Tengler and Ross Gerber join Liz Claman to debate the automaker's autonomous future. Tengler analyzes the Optimus robot delivery timeline, while Gerber raises safety concerns about Cybercab… -
Physical AI Is Rewriting Manufacturing in 2026For 50 years, factory robots did one thing, one way — and broke the moment a part shifted 1mm. That era is ending. The shift: Humanoid robots powered by Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models now see, reason, and move in real time. They adapt… - Tesla Optimus Hits 1,000/Week, Echoes 2018 Warning [2026]When did Elon Musk admit Tesla relied too heavily on automation?Musk made his public admission on April 13, 2018, stating that “excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake” and that the error was his own, during the period widely described…
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Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2026 Earnings: 75% FSD attach rate, financial highlights, moreTesla scales Cybercabs in Texas and halts the number of Model Y Robotaxis Tesla Robotaxi and Cybercab fleet in Texas surpasses the 500 mark (420 + 126) Large number of Tesla Cybercab robotaxis spotted in Houston, hinting at a launch soon… -
Musk sees Optimus becoming world's 'biggest product'Musk expects Tesla Optimus deliveries to firms in late 2027 Breakingthenews.net -
Tesla to Begin Full Production of Optimus Robots in Late 2027 at the Earliest, Elon Musk SaysTesla (TSLA) Chief Executive Elon Musk expects the company to begin full production of its Optimus r Oops, something went wrong U.S. markets open in 3h 8m Tesla to Begin Full Production of Optimus Robots in Late 2027 at the Earliest, Elon… - Tesla Begins Optimus Humanoid Robot Production in Fremont, California as Profits Drop 43%Published 21 Oct 2026, 23:50 UTC Optimus production has begun at Fremont, producing first production-quality bots. Q3 profits dropped 43% due to higher costs and AI investments. Where the coverage agrees Directory totals describe our…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions