The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
Oct 22, 3 PM ETAbove 9.867: 50% → 81%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Last odds
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
✓ Above 9.867
98%
✓ Above 9.869
98%
✓ Above 9.871
98%
✓ Above 9.873
98%
✓ Above 9.875
98%
✓ Above 9.877
98%
✓ Above 9.879
98%
✓ Above 9.881
98%
✓ Above 9.883
98%
✓ Above 9.885
98%
✓ Above 9.887
98%
✓ Above 9.889
98%
✓ Above 9.891
98%
✓ Above 9.893
98%
✓ Above 9.895
98%
2.00
✓ Above 9.897
98%
2.00
✓ Above 9.899
98%
✓ Above 9.901
98%
3.00
✓ Above 9.903
98%
3.00
✓ Above 9.905
98%
5.00
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.
