The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
Oct 22, 3 PM ETAbove 94.821: 30% → 55%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Last odds
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
✓ Above 94.821
98%
28.00
✓ Above 94.823
98%
✓ Above 94.825
98%
✓ Above 94.827
98%
✓ Above 94.829
97%
✓ Above 94.831
97%
✓ Above 94.833
97%
✓ Above 94.835
97%
✓ Above 94.837
97%
✓ Above 94.839
97%
25.00
✓ Above 94.841
96%
25.00
✓ Above 94.843
96%
✓ Above 94.845
96%
50.00
✓ Above 94.847
96%
50.00
✓ Above 94.849
96%
✓ Above 94.851
80%
25.00
✓ Above 94.853
80%
25.00
✓ Above 94.855
80%
62.00
✓ Above 94.857
80%
90.00
✓ Above 94.859
80%
70.00
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.
