Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
The odds
6%Above 91,500 MW
91,000100,000
How the odds have moved
Above 91,500 MW: 5% on Oct 20, 6% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 91,500 MW | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 236.2K | |
| Above 92,000 MW | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 146.2K | |
| Above 92,500 MW | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 84.4K | |
| Above 93,000 MW | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 107.4K | |
| Above 94,000 MW | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 126.6K | |
| Above 96,000 MW | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 120.8K | |
| Above 98,000 MW | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 54.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas ERCOT
Search ›-
Bloom Energy says solid oxide fuel cells can close the gap between surging U.S. data center power demand and slow grid expansion timelinesU.S. electricity demand is growing faster than the grid can keep up. According to McKinsey & Company, American IT load is expected to nearly double — from roughly 80 GW in 2025 to 150 GW by 2028 — driven largely by AI data center… -
Solar PPA Prices Rise 6% YoY in North America, Fall 4% in EuropeNorth American solar PPA prices increased 4.9% QoQ, while European prices rose 0.4% Solar power purchase agreement (PPA) prices in North America increased 6% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, while prices in Europe… - Windtech International - Wind generation in the USA forecast to grow through 2027Solar generation is forecast to grow more rapidly, increasing by 20.82% in 2026 and by 18.08% in 2027. Utility-scale solar generation increased by 33.79% in 2025 compared with 2024. Solar is forecast to account for 8.11% of US electricity…
-
Texas Grid Meets Record Power Demand as Clean Energy Gains GroundTexas' electricity grid weathered a record-breaking summer as renewable energy supplied a growing share of power, according to a new analysis from the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) examining hourly electricity generation data. The… -
‘Business as Usual’: Despite Governor’s Directive, TCEQ Continues Processing and Issuing Data Center PermitsEvery day, Big Banks, Big Tech, and their armies of corporate lobbyists threaten our economy, our financial security, and our democracy – sacrificing Main Street Americans and our families on the altar of corporate profits. Public Citizen… -
Report Questions Texas Compliance with Abbott's Data Center Permit PauseA new review by FracTracker Alliance and Public Citizens found that the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality continued processing permits and authorizations tied to data center development after Governor Greg Abbott (R) ordered a… -
Goldman Sachs warns power delays may hinder AI data center growthEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… - Texas Energy Technology Startups: Emerging Business OpportunitiesOct 17: Texas has built its reputation as one of America’s leading energy centres through decades of oil and gas production. Today, the state is creating opportunities in a wider range of technologies, including battery storage, artificial…
-
Texas AG Ken Paxton Sends Compliance Letters to 156 Data Centers over Water Usage ReportingTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office said Thursday it had sent letters to 156 data center developments across more than 30 counties, pressing them to comply with state water use reporting rules. Fox 7 Austin reports that Attorney… -
Texas’ ERCOT Grid Passed the Reliability Test This SummerEven though Texas is no stranger to heat, July and August were persistently hot. In fact, the summer of 2026 was the warmest summer on record for the contiguous U.S. This heat drove high usage of air conditioning, a large driver of… -
Tesla batteries help Texas energy site double storage capacity to 300 megawattsThe expansion doubles Bocanova’s capacity as data centers drive demand. Nightpeak Energy has brought a second battery storage project near Houston into commercial operation, doubling its Bocanova site’s capacity to 300 megawatts as data… -
FAQ: Wind Power Futures and OptionsWind Power futures are financially settled futures contracts based on indices provided by Vaisala Xweather Ltd that measure the cumulative theoretical power production in gigawatt hour (GWh) from wind turbines aggregated over a region. The…
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 2
- No change20%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%▼ 2
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause1%
- Other1%
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.79%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.79%Middle half 2.99% – 6.43%
Wisconsin corn yield in 2026
182.8median
160200
Median 182.8Middle half 178.2 – 187.8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions