Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
4%chance
Install
Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?
The odds
44.3median
0300
Median 44.3Middle half 34.6 – 58.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 52.8 on Oct 20, 44.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25 | 100% | 99¢ | 1.9K | |||
| Above 50 | 36% | ▲ 14 | 33¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 9.5K |
| Above 75 | 6% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.9K |
| Above 100 | 2% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 703 |
| Above 125 | 2% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 98.00 | |
| Above 150 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 130 | ||
| Above 175 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 171 | ||
| Above 200 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 107 | ||
| Above 225 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 95.00 | ||
| Above 250 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 57.00 | ||
| Above 275 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 65.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.