Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
3%chance▼ 1
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8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
The odds
31%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 32% on Oct 20, 31% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | 30¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 45.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: earthquake, Japan
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A 7.0-magnitude earthquake jolts Japan's Ogasawara IslandsTOKYO: An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.0 on Sunday (Oct 25) struck waters near the Ogasawara Islands in the Pacific Ocean, south of Tokyo, with no tsunami warnings issued, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said. A… -
Magnitude-7.0 earthquake strike waters near Japan's Ogasawara IslandsTOKYO (Xinhua): An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.0 on Sunday struck waters near the Ogasawara Islands in the Pacific Ocean, south of Tokyo, with no tsunami warnings issued, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said. The… -
Deep 6.5-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Off Japan, No DamageA deep earthquake struck southeast of Japan near the Ogasawara Islands, with agencies reporting magnitudes of 6.5 and 7. No casualties, material damage or tsunami alerts were reported. October 25, 2026 Hour: 3:03 am A powerful earthquake… -
Significant 5.3 earthquake strikes near Miyazaki, JapanEarthquake news: reports and updates on earthquake activity world-wide Look up quakes in: Significant 5.3 earthquake strikes near Miyazaki, Japan Small magnitude-2.8 tremor reported 32 km northwest of Rodez, France Small magnitude 2.7… -
[Book Summary] Japan's Great Earthquakes by Hiroki Kamata [Interpretation]The ground beneath your feet is moving right now.At a speed of several centimeters per second. At a speed you don't notice. But when that accumulation reaches its limit, the ground will split in an instant. People who are concerned about… -
Japan: 6.5 magnitude earthquake hits Bonin Islands regionNew Delhi: An earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale struck the Bonin Islands region in Japan early Sunday morning, said the United States Geological Survey. The Bonin Islands are also known as the Ogasawara Islands and lie… -
No tsunami threat to Hawaii after 7.0M earthquake near Bonin Islands, JapanThere is no tsunami threat to Hawaii after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake hit near Bonin Islands in Japan on Saturday afternoon. The U.S. Geological Survey's earthquake map showing the location (colored in teal) of the earthquake near Bonin… -
Seismic-like event, possible earthquake, reported about 10 minutes ago in Hokkaido, JapanEarthquake news: reports and updates on earthquake activity world-wide Look up quakes in: Seismic-like event, possible earthquake, reported about 10 minutes ago in Hokkaido, Japan Volcano earthquake report for Sunday, 25 October 2026 World… - Magnitude 7.0 earthquake strikes deep beneath the Pacific near JapanThere was no threat of a tsunami, the Japan Meteorological Agency says A magnitude 7.0 earthquake has struck deep beneath the Pacific Ocean near Japan's remote Ogasawara Islands, about 1,000km (620 miles) south of Tokyo, with no threat of…
- Earthquake Of Magnitude 6.3 Hits Bonin Islands Region Of JapanAn earthquake of magnitude 6.3 hit the Bonin Islands region of Japan early Sunday, news agency Reuters reported, citing the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC).Details regarding the depth of the earthquake, possible damage…
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Mag. 3.9 earthquake - Japan: SW Niigata Pref on Monday, Oct 26, 2026, at 03:20 am (GMT +9) -Detailed info, map, data, reports, updates about this earthquake: Light mag. 3.9 earthquake - Japan: SW Niigata Pref on Monday, Oct 26, 2026, at 03:20 am (GMT +9) - Look up quakes in: Mag. 3.9 earthquake - Japan: SW Niigata Pref on Monday… -
Strong mag. 5.2 Earthquake - Bonin Islands, Japan Region, on Monday, Oct 26, 2026, at 07:16 am (GMT +9) -Detailed info, map, data, reports, updates about this earthquake: Strong mag. 5.2 earthquake - Bonin Islands, Japan Region, on Monday, Oct 26, 2026, at 07:16 am (GMT +9) - Look up quakes in: Strong mag. 5.2 Earthquake - Bonin Islands…
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Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
31%chance▲ 3
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
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50.9median
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Median 50.9Middle half 33.8 – 73.2
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
13%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions