US recession by end of 2026?
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US Treasury cash balance on October 23, 2026
The odds
$975.60median
$825$1,125
Median $975.60Middle half $960.54 – $990.48
How the odds have moved
Median: $967.97 on Oct 21, $975.60 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $850 billion | 97% | 51¢ | $1.03 | 610 | ||
| Above $875 billion | 97% | 51¢ | $1.03 | 805 | ||
| Above $900 billion | 96% | 51¢ | $1.04 | 341 | ||
| Above $925 billion | 93% | ▼ 5 | 47¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 149 |
| Above $950 billion | 93% | ▼ 4 | 52¢ | $1.08 | 513 | |
| Above $975 billion | 51% | ▼ 22 | 36¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 763 |
| Above $1,000 billion | 9% | ▼ 6 | 7¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 392 |
| Above $1,025 billion | 6% | ▼ 4 | 5¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 12.8K |
| Above $1,050 billion | 3% | ▼ 4 | 5¢ | $20.00 | 15.6K | |
| Above $1,075 billion | 3% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | $20.00 | 22.4K | |
| Above $1,100 billion | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 34.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Treasury
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Treasury chief lauds Türkiye's achievements in fiscal transparencyTürkiye has taken "major steps forward" in fiscal transparency in the last decade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a recent assessment, with a top Turkish economy official lauding the improvement and tying it to institutional… -
Crypto Treasury Management: Bitcoin Lending's Next PhaseOn October 23, 2026, Silicon Valley Bank / First Citizens Innovation published a report that marks a structural shift in crypto treasury management: Bitcoin-backed lending has matured into a collateralized, transparent institutional… -
SRD grant a “material risk” to government, declares TreasuryHome » Lifestyle » SASSA » SRD grant a “material risk” to government, declares Treasury Extending the grant until 31 March 2027 doesn’t reveal Treasury’s entire plan. On Wednesday, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced that the… -
District Treasury Bandipora concludes Four-Day JKIFMS Training ProgBandipora :District Treasury Bandipora Saturday concluded a four-day training programme on the implementation of the JKIFMS e-Bill, e-Voucher, e-Receipt and e-A Bandipora :District Treasury Bandipora Saturday concluded a four-day training… -
iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF $GOVT Stock: Gibbs Wealth Management Grows HoldingsGibbs Wealth Management raised its stake in iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BATS:GOVT – Free Report) by 12.8% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)… -
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF $SGOV Shares Acquired by Gibbs Wealth ManagementPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 25th, 2026 Shares of NYSE:SGOV opened at $100.66 on Friday. iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF has a 52-week low of $100.27 and a 52-week high of $100.73. The stock’s 50-day simple moving average is… - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF $GOVT Shares Bought by Bernardo Wealth Planning LLCBernardo Wealth Planning LLC boosted its position in iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BATS:GOVT – Free Report) by 112.0% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission…
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US Treasury moves to curb AI, chip and biotech deals in China and RussiaTreasury’s draft outbound investment rule adds biotech, Russia and Iran to US curbs on tech deals, and swaps ‘AI’ for ‘super intelligence’. Comments close on 7 December. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at a White House press briefing in… -
Gibbs Wealth Management Purchases 98,474 Shares of SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF $SPTLGibbs Wealth Management increased its position in shares of SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:SPTL – Free Report) by 15.7% during the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange… - 58,280 iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF $SGOV Shares Purchased by Evergreen Capital Management LLCEvergreen Capital Management LLC grew its holdings in shares of iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:SGOV – Free Report) by 11.5% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities &…
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iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF $SHY Shares Newly Purchased by Evergreen Capital Management LLCEvergreen Capital Management LLC acquired a new position in iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:SHY – Free Report) during the third quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund… - Wealth giants brace for Treasury hit on retirement ‘boost’ schemesRetail super products designed to minimise member balances and unlock aged pension entitlements could be at risk from a review. The nation’s largest wealth managers are bracing for a potential government crackdown on retirement products…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions