Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?

Kalshi Finance › IPOs & deals Closes Jan 1, 2028 · $48 today · $752 traded · $434 at stake · prices read 7 h ago

The odds

12%chance▼ 44

How the odds have moved

Yes: 56% on Oct 20, 12% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 26, 9 AM ET56% → 12%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	12%	▼ 44	4¢	53¢	$1.89	6.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude, Dario Amodei

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Wall Street is awaiting Anthropic's IPO — and more AI newsCNBC · 3 days agoFrom Anthropicâs upcoming IPO to OpenAIâs funding round that could value the AI giant at more than $1 trillion, CNBCâs Kate Rooney breaks down the headlines in AI this week. Wall Street is awaiting Anthropic's IPO â and more AI news
Anthropic IPO is biggest question mark for entire market: Vital Knowledge's CrisafulliCNBC · 3 days agoCNBCâs âClosing Bell Overtimeâ team discusses the week's trading action, the upcoming week of earnings results and more with Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Brad Conger of Hirtle and Company. Anthropic IPO is biggest question…
Who Is Dario Amodei?The Profile · 2 days agoFull name: Dario Amodei Born: 1983 in San Francisco, California Education: B.S. in physics, Stanford; Ph.D. in biophysics, Princeton (Hertz Fellow) Role: Co-founder and CEO, Anthropic Known for: Leaving OpenAI to found Anthropic; building…
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei Was Unusually Worried About The Y2K Bug, High School Teacher RecallsOfficeChai · 2 days agoOfficeChai Long before he was warning the world about what artificial intelligence might do to it, a teenage Dario Amodei was losing sleep over a different kind of apocalyptic computer scenario — the Y2K bug. Richard Shapiro, who taught…
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is 'one of one': Will the market give Anthropic's Dario Amodei the same leeway?AOL.com · 3 days agoIn the battle of big-name tech founders, SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is in a class of his own. Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) CEO Dario Amodei is a visionary too, pros say, but he's not on Musk's level. That distinction could be…
Anthropic IPO: What should investors consider when valuing the AI company? Aswath Damodaran explainsThe Economic Times · 3 days agoAnthropic is on track for an IPO expected in mid-November, reporting impressive revenues of $16.3 billion. However, the company faces a staggering net loss of over $80 billion for the year. Valuation expert Aswath Damodaran warns that IPO…
Anthropic IPO odds near record highs despite market volatilityCrypto Briefing · 3 days agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Why OpenAI could be in trouble if Anthropic's IPO doesn't go wellYahoo Finance · 3 days agoManhattan Venture Partners managing partner Jared Carmel sits down with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi to discuss what OpenAI's (OPAI.PVT) decision to stay private could mean for the AI developer in the long run, especially…
Anthropic IPO Filing Reveals $80 Billion Loss and $600 Billion in Computing BillsCoinCentral · 2 days agoAnthropic reported a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first half of 2026, according to a draft IPO prospectus reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and Reuters. The loss compares with $13 billion in the same period a year earlier. It is one…
Anthropic IPO Targets Mid-November as OpenAI Races for $30 Billion at $1.25T-$1.4T ValuationFinanceFeeds · 2 days agoAnthropic’s anticipated mid-November IPO is becoming a race for investor capital as rival OpenAI seeks to secure roughly $30 billion in private funding before public markets get their first detailed look at the Claude developer’s finances…
Ken Griffin Warns AI Will Eliminate White-Collar Jobs as Anthropic’s Dario Amodei Defends the Race to the TopTekedia · 4 days agoCitadel founder Ken Griffin has warned that AI will threaten white-collar jobs, even as he suggests that his own firms are positioned differently. Meanwhile, Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei has defended the need to continue…
Dario Amodei's AI Safety Warning Is Colliding With Anthropic's IPO TimelineThe Motley Fool · 6 days agoAnthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned repeatedly in recent months that artificial intelligence (AI) models could advance faster than the safeguards needed to control them. Yet Anthropic is still reportedly aiming to conduct its initial…

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All ipos & deals ›

Finance › IPOs & deals

Anthropic IPO by __?

Nov 24, 2026even chance by

October 31, 2026<1%
November 15, 20262%
November 30, 202690%▲ 39

2 more

December 15, 202694%▲ 22
December 31, 202695%▲ 22

Finance › IPOs & deals

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

31%$1.75–$2.0T

$1.75–$2.0T31%▲ 3
$2.0–$2.25T23%▲ 3
$1.5–$1.75T17%▼ 2

7 more

$2.25–$2.5T12%▲ 3
$1.25–$1.5T4%▼ 1
$2.5–$2.75T4%▲ 1
<$1.25T3%▼ 3
No IPO by December 31, 20272%
$3.0T+2%
$2.75–$3.0T2%▲ 1

Finance › IPOs & deals

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

99%$ANT

$ANT99%▲ 45
$ANTH<1%▼ 26
$ANAI<1%▼ 3

6 more

$AAI<1%▼ 10
$CLDE<1%▼ 5
$APBC<1%▼ 4
$ARPC<1%
$CLAU<1%▼ 5
$CLD<1%▼ 1

Finance › IPOs & deals

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

86%November 2026

November 202686%▲ 35
December 20265%▼ 21
January 20273%▼ 4

13 more

March 20271%▼ 2
May 20271%▼ 1
April 20271%▼ 2
June 20271%
October 20261%▼ 2
February 20271%▼ 1
July 2027<1%
August 2027<1%
October 2027<1%
November 2027<1%
December 2027<1%
September 2027<1%
No IPO before 2028<1%▼ 1

Finance › IPOs & deals

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.46Tmedian

$750B$2.75T

Median $1.46TMiddle half $968.68B – $1.8T

Finance › IPOs & deals

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Nov 19, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
Before Dec 1, 202687%▲ 16
Before Jan 1, 202793%▲ 19

3 more

Before Feb 1, 202793%▲ 5
Before Mar 1, 202795%▲ 4
Before Apr 1, 202797%▲ 4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe Washington Post, the New York Times, MS Now

Trading closesJan 1, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$752 (6,263 contracts)

Today$48

At stake$434

In the news141 headlines today, 1,925 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Dario Amodei holds shares of Anthropic carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following Anthropic's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions