How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
4.53median
0.5010.5
Median 4.53Middle half 3.91 – 5.11
Install
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
The odds
3.89median
213
Median 3.89Middle half 3.38 – 4.47
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.98 on Oct 20, 3.89 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 94% | ▼ 1 | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 1.7K |
| Above 4 | 45% | ▼ 6 | 41¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 7.5K |
| Above 5 | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.0K | |
| Above 6 | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 850 | |
| Above 7 | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 399 | |
| Above 8 | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 232 | |
| Above 9 | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 35.00 | |
| Above 10 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 60.00 | |
| Above 11 | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 142 | |
| Above 12 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 63.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Starship, SpaceX
Search ›- What SpaceX Just Revealed About Starship Is Incredible!This video, hosted by Marcus House, covers a packed week of space news with a primary focus on SpaceX's Starship program and other aerospace developments. Starship and SpaceX Updates: Flight 14 Recap: The video highlights Flight 14, noting…
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SpaceX will try catching Starship and its booster for first time, Musk saysSpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the company would attempt to catch Starship and its booster next month, with the goal of recovering the entire orbital launch system for the first time. If successful, Musk said, the attempt would mark the first… - NASA Confirms SpaceX's Starship Refueling Estimate! [17:21]NASA Confirms SpaceX's Starship Refueling Estimate! | 17:21 Ellie in Space | 232K subscribers | 1,683 views | October 23, 2026 Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794 Thank you very much and God bless you. If you…
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SpaceX to attempt Starship catch on next flight, with eye on rapid cadence increase“We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA.” In its current iteration, SpaceX is largely a data company seeking to provide enormous amounts of compute for artificial intelligence. During an earnings call on Tuesday… -
US military gives Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to sensitive tracking dataThis gives the company an advantage in tracking objects in orbit, raising national security concerns and fears of greater control over the space industry The US military has given Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to restricted space tracking… -
SpaceX coverage network designs draw Wall Street's eye. Here's what analysts thinkFollowing news that SpaceX is in talks to access as many as 80,000 cell sites to grab market share from the Big Three telecoms, some analysts on Wall Street are making a key distinction that may shed ... -
Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.“We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander.” NASA does not have, nor want, nuclear weapons. But when it comes to a particular metric that is part of the Artemis Program to land people on the Moon, NASA guards a… -
SpaceX satellite system back up to full speed in Ukraine, officials sayCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 6pm CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6pm CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm What's in Season with Michael Marks CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Musk says SpaceX restricted Ukraine's Starlink connection as service restoredElon Musk has said his company SpaceX restricted Ukraine's Starlink internet service, after Ukrainian officials said connectivity issues appeared to have been resolved. Kyiv has not officially commented on Musk's latest claim but Ukrainian… -
Calls of the Day: SpaceX and ServiceNowThe Investment Committee debates the latest Calls of the Day. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Get this ... Calls of the Day: SpaceX and ServiceNow -
SpaceX Q3 Sales Rose 161% in Q3. Here's What Starlink, Starship, and AI Results Reveal About the Stock.Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +1.89%) reported its third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Tuesday, Oct. 20. Ahead of the report, I laid out what I'd be looking for. And, frankly, the latest report was better than I… -
Robotic Arm Grapples SpaceX Dragon at International Space Station Space WallpaperSpace.com is the premier source of space exploration, innovation and astronomy news, chronicling (and celebrating) humanity's ongoing expansion across the final frontier. Originally founded in 1999, Space.com is, and always has been, the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions